Natural Stock Valuation

NGVC -  USA Stock  

USD 13.34  0.87  6.12%

Do you wonder what the value of Natural Grocers By is? Calculating the true value of any business is not as easy as it may seem. While the market cap of a public entity, such as Natural Grocers, is its stock price multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding, calculating Natural Grocers' enterprise value requires a different approach. It uses Natural Grocers' balance sheet items such as long-term debt, the book value of the preferred stock, minority interest, and other important financials.
Natural Grocers Free Cash Flow is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Free Cash Flow was at 45.71 Million. The current year Tangible Asset Value is expected to grow to about 833 M, whereas Enterprise Value is forecasted to decline to about 470.4 M.
Natural Grocers By secures a last-minute Real Value of $16.41 per share. The latest price of the firm is $13.34. At this time, the firm appears to be undervalued. Our model forecasts the value of Natural Grocers By from analyzing the firm fundamentals such as Profit Margin of 1.95 %, current valuation of 691.58 M, and Return On Equity of 13.03 % as well as examining its technical indicators and Probability Of Bankruptcy. In general, we recommend taking in undervalued stocks and trading overvalued stocks since, at some point, asset prices and their ongoing real values will merge together.

Natural Valuation 

 
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Natural Grocers Valuation Module provides a unique way to ballpark how much the company is worth today. It is done using both, our quantitative analysis of the company fundamentals as well as its intrinsic market price estimation to project the real value. We also take into consideration other essential factors such as Natural Grocers's management style, its c-level domain expertise and tenure, its overall leadership history as well as current capital structure, and future earnings potential.
Undervalued
Today
13.34
28th of November 2021
Share
Please note that Natural Grocers' price fluctuation is not too volatile at this time. Calculation of the real value of Natural Grocers By is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing Natural Grocers' time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
Our valuation method for Natural Grocers By is useful when determining the fair value of the Natural stock, which is usually determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of Natural Grocers. Since Natural Grocers is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Natural Stock. However, Natural Grocers' intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
16.41
Real Value
18.93
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Natural Grocers By helps investors to forecast how Natural stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Natural Grocers more accurately as focusing exclusively on Natural Grocers' fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.680.710.74
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
10.8313.3515.87
Details
Potential
Annual Dividend
LowIncome Per ShareHigh
0.070.070.07
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0020.0020.00
Details
Traditionally analysts and sophisticated investors use multiple methods for valuing a cash-flow-generating entity or its stock. For example, some money managers use Natural Grocers' intrinsic value based on its ongoing forecasts of Natural Grocers' financial statements. In contrast, other private, professional wealth advisors use a multiplier approach by looking to relative value analysis against Natural Grocers' closest peers. When choosing an evaluation method for Natural Grocers By, ensure it is appropriate for the firm given its current financial situation and market classification. If more than one evaluation category is relevant, we suggest using both methods to arrive at a better estimate.

Natural Grocers Investments

1.31 MillionShare

Natural Valuation Drivers Correlation

Many accounts on the financial statements of Natural Grocers By are highly interrelated and sometimes correlated. Consequently, when conducting Natural's valuation analysis, one should examine all of the accounts reported to obtain a complete picture of its financial situation. We provide a unique feature to present a conventional correlation table purposely composed against different valuation-related drivers of Natural
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Natural Valuation Trend

Knowing Natural Grocers' actual value is paramount for traders to make sound investment determinations. Natural Grocers' real value is not only important for the investor to make better decisions but also for a more accurate overall view of Natural Grocers' financial worth over time since having this information enables investors and analysts to forecast the earnings more efficiently. Using both Natural Grocers' enterprise value as well as its market capitalization is the best way to gauging the value of the company and is usually enough for investors to make market timing descisions.

Natural Market Cap

Natural Grocers By is regarded second in market capitalization category among related companies. Market capitalization of Grocery Stores industry is now estimated at about 31.25 Billion. Natural Grocers maintains roughly 283.94 Million in market capitalization contributing less than 1% to equities under Grocery Stores industry.
Capitalization  Workforce  Revenue  Valuation  Total debt

Natural Grocers Valuation Ratios as Compared to Competition

Comparative valuation techniques use various fundamental indicators to help in determining Natural Grocers's current stock value. Our valuation model uses many indicators to compare Natural Grocers value to that of its competitors to determine the firm's financial worth. You can analyze the relationship between different fundamental ratios across Natural Grocers competition to find correlations between indicators driving Natural Grocers's intrinsic value. More Info.
Natural Grocers By is considered to be number one stock in beta category among related companies. It is considered to be number one stock in price to sales category among related companies fabricating about  0.25  of Price to Sales per Beta. The ratio of Beta to Price to Sales for Natural Grocers By is roughly  4.00 . Comparative valuation analysis is a catch-all model that can be used if you cannot value Natural Grocers by discounting back its dividends or cash flows. This model doesn't attempt to find an intrinsic value for Natural Grocers' Stock . Still, instead, it compares the stock's price multiples to a benchmark or nearest competition to determine if the stock is relatively undervalued or overvalued. The reason why the comparable model can be used in almost all circumstances is due to the vast number of multiples that can be utilized, such as the price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-book (P/B), price-to-sales (P/S), price-to-cash flow (P/CF), and many others. The P/E ratio is the most commonly used of these ratios because it focuses on the Natural Grocers' earnings, one of the primary drivers of an investment's value.

About Natural Grocers Valuation

The equity valuation mechanism determines the current worth of Natural Grocers By on a weekly basis. We use both absolute as well as relative valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers By. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of Natural Grocers By based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Natural Grocers's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and its related drivers such as dividends, operating cash flow, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Natural Grocers's intrinsic value. In some cases, mostly for established, large-cap companies, we also incorporate more traditional valuation methods such as dividend discount, discounted cash flow, or asset-based models. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Natural Grocers. We calculate exposure to Natural Grocers's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Natural Grocers's related companies.
Last ReportedProjected for 2021
Gross Profit325.6 M275.4 M
Profit Margin 2.22  2.22 
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado. Natural Grocers is traded on New York Stock Exchange in the United States.
Natural Grocers' stock price is the clearest measure of market expectations about its performance. Without stock valuation, investors cannot independently discern whether Natural Grocers' value is low or high relative to the company's performance and growth projections. Determining the market value of Natural Grocers can be done in different ways, such as multiplying its stock price by its outstanding shares.
A single share of Natural Grocers represents a small ownership stake in the entity. As a stockholder of Natural, your percentage of company ownership is determined by dividing the number of shares you own by the total number of shares outstanding and then multiplying that amount by 100. Owning stock in a company generally confers both corporate voting rights and income from any dividends paid to the stock owner.

Natural Grocers Dividends Analysis For Valuation

Please note that Natural Grocers has scaled down on payment of dividends at this time. Natural Grocers Earnings per Basic Share are projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Earnings per Basic Share were at 1.02. The current year Earnings per Diluted Share is expected to grow to 1.45, whereas Accumulated Retained Earnings Deficit are forecasted to decline to about 106.8 M.
There are various types of dividends Natural Grocers can pay to its shareholders, and the actual value of the dividend is determined on a per-share basis. It is to be paid equally to all of Natural shareholders on a specific date, known as the payable date. The cash dividend is the most common type of dividend payment - it is the payment of actual cash from Natural Grocers By directly to its shareholders. There are other types of dividends that companies can issue, such as stock dividends or asset dividends. When Natural pays a dividend, it has no impact on its enterprise value. It does, however, lowers the Equity Value of Natural Grocers by the value of the dividends paid out.

Natural Grocers Valuation Growth Rates

Growth stocks usually refer to those companies expected to grow sales and earnings faster than the market average. Growth stocks typically don't pay dividends, often look expensive, and usually trading at a high P/E ratio. Nevertheless, such valuations could be relatively cheap if the company continues to grow, which will drive the share price up. However, since most investors are paying a high price for a growth stock, based on expectations, if those expectations are not fully realized, growth stocks can see dramatic declines. Note, investing in growth stocks can be very risky. If the company such as Natural Grocers does not do well, investors take a loss on the stock when it is time to sell. Also, because growth stocks typically do not pay dividends, the only opportunity an investor has to make money on their investment is when they eventually sell their shares.
Quick Ratio0.24
Earnings Quarterly Growth93.30%
Revenue Growth3.20%
Payout Ratio36.84%
Enterprise Value To Ebitda11.63
Earnings Growth92.50%
Enterprise Value To Revenue0.65

Natural Grocers Current Valuation Indicators

Valuation refers to the process of determining the present value of Natural Grocers By and all of its assets. It can be calculated using a number of techniques. As many analysts who try to value Natural we look at many different elements of the entity such as Natural's management, its prospective future earnings, the current market value of the company's assets, as well as its capital structure formation.
Valuations are an essential part of business, for companies themselves, but also for investors. For companies, such as Natural Grocers, valuations can help measure their progress and success and can help them track their performance in the market compared to others. In addition, investors can use Natural Grocers' valuations to help determine the worth of potential investments. They can do this by using data and information made public by a company. Regardless of who the valuation is for, it essentially describes Natural Grocers' worth.
Additionally, see Stocks Correlation. Note that the Natural Grocers By information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Grocers' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

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When running Natural Grocers By price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natural Grocers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Grocers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Natural Grocers By is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Grocers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Grocers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Grocers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Grocers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Grocers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Natural Grocers value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Grocers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.