Arch Resources Stock Volatility
| ARCH Stock | USD 164.30 1.62 0.98% |
Arch Resources secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0732, which signifies that the company had a -0.0732% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Arch Resources exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Arch Resources' mean deviation of 1.74, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0029 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Arch Resources' volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Arch Resources Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Arch daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Arch's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Arch Resources volatility.
Arch |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Arch Resources can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Arch Resources at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Arch stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Arch Resources' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving together with Arch Stock
| 0.69 | AMR | Alpha Metallurgical Financial Report 13th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.8 | METC | Ramaco Resources Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | X | United States Steel Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against Arch Stock
| 0.7 | FF | FutureFuel Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.58 | CE | Celanese Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.58 | CX | Cemex SAB de Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.57 | AG | First Majestic Silver Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | AA | Alcoa Corp Financial Report 17th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | HL | Hecla Mining Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.48 | DD | Dupont De Nemours Report 7th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | AU | AngloGold Ashanti plc Financial Report 28th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
Arch Resources Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Arch Resources' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Arch stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Arch stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Arch Resources's beta of 0.94 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Arch Resources stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Arch Resources exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.34 and kurtosis of 0.14. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Arch Resources' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Arch Resources' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Arch Resources Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Arch Resources correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Arch Beta |
Arch standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 2.14 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Arch Resources's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Arch Resources' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in arch stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Arch Resources.
Using Arch Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on Arch Resources grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Arch Resources at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Arch Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Arch Resources' position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Arch Resources will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
Arch Resources' PUT expiring on 2024-04-19
Profit |
| Arch Resources Price At Expiration |
Current Arch Resources Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $185.0 | -0.9471 | 0.0092 | 2 | 2024-04-19 | 19.0 - 22.9 | 23.5 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $180.0 | -0.9459 | 0.012 | 1 | 2024-04-19 | 14.0 - 17.8 | 14.8 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $175.0 | -0.9207 | 0.0204 | 48 | 2024-04-19 | 9.0 - 12.9 | 15.5 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $170.0 | -0.7604 | 0.0406 | 170 | 2024-04-19 | 5.8 - 7.7 | 3.62 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $165.0 | -0.5839 | 0.1246 | 85 | 2024-04-19 | 1.45 - 3.4 | 1.63 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $160.0 | -0.2209 | 0.0511 | 145 | 2024-04-19 | 0.65 - 1.15 | 0.75 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $155.0 | -0.0847 | 0.0219 | 315 | 2024-04-19 | 0.1 - 0.8 | 0.28 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $150.0 | -0.0645 | 0.0125 | 102 | 2024-04-19 | 0.1 - 0.55 | 0.29 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $145.0 | -0.0245 | 0.0054 | 168 | 2024-04-19 | 0.0 - 0.5 | 0.1 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $140.0 | -0.0391 | 0.0055 | 39 | 2024-04-19 | 0.0 - 0.25 | 0.25 | View |
Arch Resources Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Arch Resources stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Arch Resources' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Arch Resources' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Arch Resources' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Arch Resources' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Arch Resources' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Arch Resources' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Arch Resources' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Arch Resources Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Arch Resources Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Arch Resources has a beta of 0.9384 . This suggests Arch Resources market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Arch Resources is expected to follow.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Arch Resources or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Arch Resources' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Arch stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Arch Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives an Arch Resources Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Arch Resources Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Arch Resources is -1366.65. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 4.58 and standard deviation of 2.14. The mean deviation of Arch Resources is currently at 1.61. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.63
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.94 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Arch Resources Stock Return Volatility
Arch Resources historical daily return volatility represents how much of Arch Resources stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 2.1397% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6219% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Arch Resources Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Arch Resources or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Arch Resources may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Arch's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Arch Resources and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Arch Resources fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Market Cap | 1.6 B | 1.4 B |
Arch Resources' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Arch Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Arch Resources' price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Arch Resources' volatility to invest better
Higher Arch Resources' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Arch Resources stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Arch Resources stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Arch Resources investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Arch Resources' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Arch Resources' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Arch Resources Investment Opportunity
Arch Resources has a volatility of 2.14 and is 3.45 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. 18 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Arch Resources. You can use Arch Resources to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a moderate downward daily trend and can be a good diversifier. Check odds of Arch Resources to be traded at $161.01 in 90 days.Modest diversification
The correlation between Arch Resources and NYA is 0.26 (i.e., Modest diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Arch Resources and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Arch Resources Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arch Resources' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arch Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Arch Resources stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0029 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (14,485) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.26 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Arch Resources Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Arch Resources as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Arch Resources' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Arch Resources' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Arch Resources.
When determining whether Arch Resources offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Arch Resources' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Arch Resources Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Arch Resources Stock: Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Arch Resources. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in main economic indicators. For more detail on how to invest in Arch Stock please use our How to Invest in Arch Resources guide.Note that the Arch Resources information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arch Resources' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
Complementary Tools for Arch Stock analysis
When running Arch Resources' price analysis, check to measure Arch Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arch Resources is operating at the current time. Most of Arch Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arch Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arch Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arch Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arch Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Resources. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arch Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.74) | Dividend Share 10.66 | Earnings Share 24.21 | Revenue Per Share 170.589 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) |
The market value of Arch Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arch that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arch Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arch Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arch Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arch Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arch Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arch Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arch Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.