Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Volatility
| AUPH Stock | USD 5.05 0.06 1.20% |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.16, which signifies that the company had a -0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09), standard deviation of 4.01, and Mean Deviation of 2.33 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' volatility include:
720 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 720 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Aurinia daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Aurinia's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals volatility.
Aurinia |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Aurinia stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving against Aurinia Stock
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| 0.47 | MRUS | Merus BV Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Aurinia stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Aurinia stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's beta of 0.64 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -3.33 and kurtosis of 20.23. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Aurinia Pharmaceuticals correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Aurinia Beta |
Aurinia standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 4.01 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in aurinia stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has a beta of 0.6422 . This suggests as returns on the market go up, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Aurinia Pharmaceuticals will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals or Biotechnology sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aurinia stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives an Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is -639.55. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 16.08 and standard deviation of 4.01. The mean deviation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is currently at 2.33. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.62
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.69 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.64 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Return Volatility
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals historical daily return volatility represents how much of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 4.0096% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6294% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Aurinia's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc., a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing therapies to treat various diseases with unmet medical need in the United States and internationally. It has a collaboration and license agreement with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Aurinia Pharm operates under Biotechnology classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 300 people.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Aurinia Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' volatility to invest better
Higher Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Investment Opportunity
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals has a volatility of 4.01 and is 6.37 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. 35 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. You can use Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a large bullish trend. Check odds of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to be traded at $5.56 in 90 days.Average diversification
The correlation between Aurinia Pharmaceuticals and NYA is 0.1 (i.e., Average diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Aurinia Pharmaceuticals and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.98) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (639.55) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.01 | |||
| Variance | 16.08 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.18) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Aurinia Pharmaceuticals as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.
When determining whether Aurinia Pharmaceuticals offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock: Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in american community survey. For more detail on how to invest in Aurinia Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Complementary Tools for Aurinia Stock analysis
When running Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Aurinia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurinia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.