# ConocoPhillips Stock Volatility

COP | Stock | ## USD 115.93 0.31 0.27% |

ConocoPhillips appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. ConocoPhillips secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.19, which signifies that the company had 0.19% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for ConocoPhillips, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please makes use of ConocoPhillips' Mean Deviation of 2.06, risk adjusted performance of 0.2471, and Downside Deviation of 2.28 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.

ConocoPhillips |

ConocoPhillips Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of ConocoPhillips daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use ConocoPhillips's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of ConocoPhillips volatility.

### 30 Days Market Risk

### Chance of Distress

### 30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as ConocoPhillips can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of ConocoPhillips at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase ConocoPhillips stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of ConocoPhillips' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

## Moving together with ConocoPhillips

+ | 0.97 | EOG | Eog Resources | PairCorr | |||

+ | 0.71 | CNQ | Canadian Natural Res | PairCorr | |||

+ | 0.7 | OXY | Occidental Petroleum Corp | Trending | PairCorr | ||

+ | 0.82 | PXD | Pioneer Natural Resources | Trending | PairCorr |

## Moving against ConocoPhillips

## ConocoPhillips Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

ConocoPhillips' beta coefficient measures the volatility of ConocoPhillips stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents ConocoPhillips stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, ConocoPhillips's beta of 1.05 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk ConocoPhillips stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.

ConocoPhillips currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.21 and Jensen Alpha of 0.54. However, we advise investors to further question ConocoPhillips expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure ConocoPhillips' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact ConocoPhillips' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall. 3 Months Beta |Analyze ConocoPhillips Demand TrendCheck current 90 days ConocoPhillips correlation with market (DOW)## ConocoPhillips Beta |

ConocoPhillips standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

## Standard Deviation | 2.6 |

It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by ConocoPhillips's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of ConocoPhillips' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in conocophillips stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in ConocoPhillips.

## Using ConocoPhillips Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on ConocoPhillips grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of ConocoPhillips at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of ConocoPhillips Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge ConocoPhillips' position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding ConocoPhillips will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

### ConocoPhillips' PUT expiring on 2022-10-07

Profit |

Share

ConocoPhillips Price At Expiration |

### Current ConocoPhillips Insurance Chain

Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $130.0 | -0.9308 | 0.0152 | 2 | 2022-10-07 | 13.55 - 15.1 | 17.48 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $120.0 | -0.8963 | 0.0575 | 6 | 2022-10-07 | 4.2 - 4.7 | 4.22 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $119.0 | -0.7893 | 0.0788 | 3 | 2022-10-07 | 3.4 - 3.8 | 3.5 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $118.0 | -0.6662 | 0.0798 | 1 | 2022-10-07 | 2.72 - 3.05 | 3.05 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $117.0 | -0.5933 | 0.0929 | 2 | 2022-10-07 | 2.12 - 2.4 | 1.94 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $116.0 | -0.4989 | 0.0938 | 206 | 2022-10-07 | 1.61 - 1.85 | 1.43 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $115.0 | -0.4068 | 0.0898 | 415 | 2022-10-07 | 1.18 - 1.4 | 1.09 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $114.0 | -0.3232 | 0.0809 | 162 | 2022-10-07 | 0.86 - 1.05 | 0.76 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $113.0 | -0.2513 | 0.0698 | 117 | 2022-10-07 | 0.6 - 0.77 | 0.7 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $112.0 | -0.1887 | 0.0582 | 153 | 2022-10-07 | 0.43 - 0.55 | 0.49 | View |

Put | 2022-10-07 PUT at $111.0 | -0.1409 | 0.0468 | 156 | 2022-10-07 | 0.29 - 0.39 | 0.35 | View |

## ConocoPhillips Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which ConocoPhillips stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with ConocoPhillips' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of ConocoPhillips' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of ConocoPhillips' volatility:

### Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures ConocoPhillips' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict ConocoPhillips' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.### Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for ConocoPhillips' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on ConocoPhillips' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |

The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. The Median Price line plots median indexes of ConocoPhillips price series..

## ConocoPhillips Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.0476 suggesting ConocoPhillips market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, ConocoPhillips is expected to follow.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to ConocoPhillips or Energy sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that ConocoPhillips' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a ConocoPhillips stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.

The company has an alpha of 0.5396, implying that it can generate a 0.54 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |

Returns |

## What Drives a ConocoPhillips Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:### Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.### Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.### The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.## ConocoPhillips Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to ConocoPhillips or Energy sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that ConocoPhillips' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a ConocoPhillips stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of ConocoPhillips is 524.93. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 6.74 and standard deviation of 2.6. The mean deviation of ConocoPhillips is currently at 2.04. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 1.23

α | Alpha over DOW | 0.54 | |

β | Beta against DOW | 1.05 | |

σ | Overall volatility | 2.60 | |

Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |

## ConocoPhillips Stock Return Volatility

ConocoPhillips historical daily return volatility represents how much of ConocoPhillips stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm has volatility of**2.5955%**on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 1.2394% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.

Performance (%) |

Timeline |

## About ConocoPhillips Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of ConocoPhillips or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of ConocoPhillips may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to ConocoPhillips's beta indicator, it measures the risk of ConocoPhillips and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of ConocoPhillips fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.

Please read more on our technical analysis page.ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas , and natural gas liquids worldwide. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas. ConocoPhillips operates under Oil Gas EP classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 9400 people.

## ConocoPhillips Investment Opportunity

ConocoPhillips has a volatility of 2.6 and is 2.1 times more volatile than DOW.**22**of all equities and portfolios are less risky than ConocoPhillips. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of ConocoPhillips is lower than

**22 ()**of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use ConocoPhillips to enhance the returns of your portfolios. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a normal upward fluctuation. Check odds of ConocoPhillips to be traded at $121.73 in 90 days.

### Very weak diversification

The correlation between ConocoPhillips and DJI is

**0.5**(i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding ConocoPhillips and DJI in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.## ConocoPhillips Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of ConocoPhillips' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ConocoPhillips' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of ConocoPhillips stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.

Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2471 | |||

Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.4882 | |||

Mean Deviation | 2.06 | |||

Semi Deviation | 1.92 | |||

Downside Deviation | 2.28 | |||

Coefficient Of Variation | 508.22 | |||

Standard Deviation | 2.6 |

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

## ConocoPhillips Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.

The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against ConocoPhillips as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. ConocoPhillips' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, ConocoPhillips' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to ConocoPhillips.

Continue to Trending Equities. You can also try Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.

## Complementary Tools for analysis

When running ConocoPhillips price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.

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Is ConocoPhillips' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConocoPhillips. If investors know ConocoPhillips will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConocoPhillips listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.

The market value of ConocoPhillips is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConocoPhillips that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConocoPhillips' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConocoPhillips' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConocoPhillips' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConocoPhillips' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.

Please note, there is a significant difference between ConocoPhillips' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ConocoPhillips value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConocoPhillips' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.