Americas Stock Volatility

CRMT -  USA Stock  

USD 159.00  1.64  1.02%

We consider Americas Car-Mart very steady. Americas Car-Mart secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0274, which signifies that the company had 0.0274% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our philosophy in foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Americas Car-Mart, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Americas Car-Mart mean deviation of 2.01, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0419 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0771%.

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Americas Car-Mart Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Americas daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Americas's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Americas Car-Mart volatility.

30 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Moves indifferently to market moves

Americas Car-Mart Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Americas Car-Mart's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Americas stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Americas stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Americas Car-Mart's beta of -0.18 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Americas Car-Mart stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Let's try to break down what Americas's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Americas Car-Mart are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Americas Car-Mart is likely to outperform the market.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Americas Car-Mart Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Americas Car-Mart correlation with market (DOW)

Americas Beta

    
  -0.18  
Americas standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  2.81  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Americas Car-Mart's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Americas Car-Mart stock's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in Americas Car-Mart stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Americas Car-Mart.

Americas Car-Mart Stock Volatility Analysis

Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Americas Car-Mart Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input. View also all equity analysis or get more info about average price price transform indicator.

Americas Car-Mart Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Americas Car-Mart has a beta of -0.1832 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Americas Car-Mart are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, however, Americas Car-Mart is likely to outperform the market.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Americas Car-Mart or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Americas Car-Mart stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Americas stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.1246, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 

Americas Car-Mart Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Americas Car-Mart or Consumer Cyclical sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Americas Car-Mart stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Americas stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Americas Car-Mart is 3647.43. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 7.9 and standard deviation of 2.81. The mean deviation of Americas Car-Mart is currently at 2.05. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.74
α
Alpha over DOW
0.12
β
Beta against DOW-0.18
σ
Overall volatility
2.81
Ir
Information ratio 0.0324

Americas Car-Mart Stock Return Volatility

Americas Car-Mart historical daily return volatility represents how much Americas Car-Mart stock's price daily returns swing around its mean daily price change - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 2.8107% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 0.7403% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

About Americas Car-Mart Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Americas Car-Mart or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Americas Car-Mart may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Americas's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Americas Car-Mart and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Americas Car-Mart fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2021
Market Capitalization997.4 M1.1 B
Americas Car-Mart, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an automotive retailer in the United States. Americas Car-Mart, Inc. was founded in 1981 and is based in Rogers, Arkansas. Americas Car-Mart operates under Auto Truck Dealerships classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 2000 people.

Nearest Americas long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Americas Car-Mart's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Americas Car-Mart. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Americas Car-Martusing the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Americas Car-Mart over a specific time period.
View All Americas options
CRMT210820C00125000 is a CALL option contract on Americas Car-Mart's common stock with a strick price of 125.0 expiring on 2021-08-20. The contract was last traded on 2021-06-25 at 15:57:36 for $22.53 and, as of today, has 18 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $32.1, and an ask price of $36.3. The implied volatility as of the 2nd of August is 52.6006.
 Profit 
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      Americas Car-Mart Price At Expiration 

Americas Car-Mart Investment Opportunity

Americas Car-Mart has a volatility of 2.81 and is 3.8 times more volatile than DOW. 24  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Americas Car-Mart. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Americas Car-Mart is lower than 24 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Americas Car-Mart to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a somewhat bearish sentiment, but the market may correct it shortly. Check odds of Americas Car-Mart to be traded at $154.23 in 90 days. . Let's try to break down what Americas's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Americas Car-Mart are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Americas Car-Mart is likely to outperform the market.

Good diversification

The correlation between Americas Car-Mart and DJI is Good diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Americas Car-Mart and DJI in the same portfolio assuming nothing else is changed.

Americas Car-Mart Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Americas Car-Mart's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Americas Car-Mart's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Americas Car-Mart stock risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance0.0419
Market Risk Adjusted Performance(0.64)
Mean Deviation2.01
Semi Deviation2.17
Downside Deviation2.27
Coefficient Of Variation2141.95
Standard Deviation2.77
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Americas Car-Mart Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
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The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Americas Car-Mart as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Americas Car-Mart's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Americas Car-Mart's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Americas Car-Mart.
Continue to Trending Equities. Note that the Americas Car-Mart information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Americas Car-Mart's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.

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When running Americas Car-Mart price analysis, check to measure Americas Car-Mart's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Americas Car-Mart is operating at the current time. Most of Americas Car-Mart's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Americas Car-Mart's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Americas Car-Mart's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Americas Car-Mart to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Americas Car-Mart is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Americas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Americas Car-Mart's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Americas Car-Mart's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Americas Car-Mart's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Americas Car-Mart underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Americas Car-Mart's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Americas Car-Mart value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Americas Car-Mart's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.