Guild Holdingsco Stock Volatility
| GHLD Stock | USD 14.00 0.12 0.85% |
We consider Guild HoldingsCo not too volatile. Guild HoldingsCo holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0119, which attests that the entity had a 0.0119% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Guild HoldingsCo, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please check out Guild HoldingsCo's Downside Deviation of 2.6, risk adjusted performance of 0.0249, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1222 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0287%. Key indicators related to Guild HoldingsCo's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Guild HoldingsCo Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Guild daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Guild's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Guild HoldingsCo volatility.
Guild |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Guild HoldingsCo can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Guild HoldingsCo at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Guild stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Guild HoldingsCo's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving against Guild Stock
Guild HoldingsCo Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Guild HoldingsCo's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Guild stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Guild stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Guild HoldingsCo's beta of 0.52 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Guild HoldingsCo stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Guild HoldingsCo currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.01 and Jensen Alpha of 0.03. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Guild HoldingsCo's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Guild HoldingsCo's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Guild HoldingsCo Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Guild HoldingsCo correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Guild Beta |
Guild standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 2.42 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Guild HoldingsCo's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Guild HoldingsCo's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in guild stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Guild HoldingsCo.
Guild HoldingsCo Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Guild HoldingsCo stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Guild HoldingsCo's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Guild HoldingsCo's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Guild HoldingsCo's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Guild HoldingsCo's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Guild HoldingsCo's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Guild HoldingsCo's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Guild HoldingsCo's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Guild HoldingsCo Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Guild HoldingsCo Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Guild HoldingsCo has a beta of 0.5164 . This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Guild HoldingsCo average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Guild HoldingsCo will be expected to be much smaller as well.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Guild HoldingsCo or Banks sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Guild HoldingsCo's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Guild stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Guild HoldingsCo has an alpha of 0.0344, implying that it can generate a 0.0344 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Guild HoldingsCo Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Guild HoldingsCo Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Guild HoldingsCo is 8414.79. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 5.83 and standard deviation of 2.42. The mean deviation of Guild HoldingsCo is currently at 1.73. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.63
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Guild HoldingsCo Stock Return Volatility
Guild HoldingsCo historical daily return volatility represents how much of Guild HoldingsCo stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 2.4155% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6219% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Guild HoldingsCo Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Guild HoldingsCo or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Guild HoldingsCo may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Guild's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Guild HoldingsCo and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Guild HoldingsCo fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 18.1 M | 19.5 M | |
| Market Cap | 914.8 M | 813.1 M |
Guild HoldingsCo's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Guild Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Guild HoldingsCo's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Guild HoldingsCo's volatility to invest better
Higher Guild HoldingsCo's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Guild HoldingsCo stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Guild HoldingsCo stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Guild HoldingsCo investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Guild HoldingsCo's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Guild HoldingsCo's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Guild HoldingsCo Investment Opportunity
Guild HoldingsCo has a volatility of 2.42 and is 3.9 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Guild HoldingsCo is lower than 21 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Guild HoldingsCo to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a moderate downward daily trend and can be a good diversifier. Check odds of Guild HoldingsCo to be traded at $13.72 in 90 days.Average diversification
The correlation between Guild HoldingsCo and NYA is 0.13 (i.e., Average diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Guild HoldingsCo and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Guild HoldingsCo Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Guild HoldingsCo's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Guild HoldingsCo's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Guild HoldingsCo stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0249 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1222 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 3609.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Guild HoldingsCo Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Guild HoldingsCo as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Guild HoldingsCo's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Guild HoldingsCo's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Guild HoldingsCo.
When determining whether Guild HoldingsCo is a strong investment it is important to analyze Guild HoldingsCo's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Guild HoldingsCo's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Guild Stock, refer to the following important reports: Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Guild HoldingsCo. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis. For information on how to trade Guild Stock refer to our How to Trade Guild Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Complementary Tools for Guild Stock analysis
When running Guild HoldingsCo's price analysis, check to measure Guild HoldingsCo's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guild HoldingsCo is operating at the current time. Most of Guild HoldingsCo's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guild HoldingsCo's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guild HoldingsCo's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guild HoldingsCo to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Guild HoldingsCo's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guild HoldingsCo. If investors know Guild will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guild HoldingsCo listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Earnings Share (0.64) | Revenue Per Share 11.835 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.49) | Return On Assets 0.004 |
The market value of Guild HoldingsCo is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guild that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guild HoldingsCo's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guild HoldingsCo's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guild HoldingsCo's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guild HoldingsCo's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guild HoldingsCo's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Guild HoldingsCo is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guild HoldingsCo's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.