Heat Biologics Stock Volatility

HTBX -  USA Stock  

USD 5.72  0.14  2.51%

Heat Biologics holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0824, which attests that the entity had -0.0824% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Macroaxis philosophy in determining the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Heat Biologics exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to check out Heat Biologics risk adjusted performance of (0.034481), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.45) to validate the risk estimate we provide.

Heat Biologics Volatility 

 
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Heat Biologics Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Heat Biologics daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Heat Biologics's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Heat Biologics volatility.

60 Days Market Risk

Somewhat reliable

Chance of Distress

Very Low

60 Days Economic Sensitivity

Slowly supersedes the market

Heat Biologics Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Heat Biologics' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Heat Biologics stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Heat Biologics stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Heat Biologics's beta of 0.33 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Heat Biologics stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Let's try to break down what Heat Biologics's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Heat Biologics returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Heat Biologics will be expected to be smaller as well.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Heat Biologics Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Heat Biologics correlation with market (DOW)

Heat Biologics Beta

    
  0.33  
Heat Biologics standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  2.54  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Heat Biologics's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Heat Biologics stock's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in Heat Biologics stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Heat Biologics.

Heat Biologics Implied Volatility

    
  113.69  
Heat Biologics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Heat Biologics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Heat Biologics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Heat Biologics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Heat Biologics' options near their expiration.

Heat Biologics Stock Volatility Analysis

Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Heat Biologics Typical Price indicator is an average of each day price and can be used instead of closing price when creating different Heat Biologics moving average lines. View also all equity analysis or get more info about typical price price transform indicator.

Heat Biologics Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Heat Biologics has a beta of 0.3323 . This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Heat Biologics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Heat Biologics will be expected to be much smaller as well.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Heat Biologics or Healthcare sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Heat Biologics stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Heat Biologics stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Heat Biologics is significantly underperforming DOW.
 Predicted Return Density 
      Returns 

Heat Biologics Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Heat Biologics or Healthcare sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Heat Biologics stock's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Heat Biologics stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Heat Biologics is -1213.7. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 6.47 and standard deviation of 2.54. The mean deviation of Heat Biologics is currently at 1.91. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (DOW) has volatility of 0.74
α
Alpha over DOW
-0.17
β
Beta against DOW0.33
σ
Overall volatility
2.54
Ir
Information ratio -0.08

Heat Biologics Stock Return Volatility

Heat Biologics historical daily return volatility represents how much Heat Biologics stock's price daily returns swing around its mean daily price change - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 2.5437% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, DOW inherits 0.722% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
      Timeline 

About Heat Biologics Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Heat Biologics or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Heat Biologics may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Heat Biologics's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Heat Biologics and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Heat Biologics fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2021
Market Capitalization122.4 M132.1 M
Heat Biologics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of immunotherapies to activate patients immune system against cancer through T-cell activation and expansion. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Morrisville, North Carolina. Heat Biologics operates under Biotechnology classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs people.

Nearest Heat Biologics long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Heat Biologics' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Heat Biologics. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Heat Biologicsusing the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Heat Biologics over a specific time period.
View All Heat Biologics options
2021-11-19 CALL at $2.5 is a CALL option contract on Heat Biologics' common stock with a strick price of 2.5 expiring on 2021-11-19. The contract was last traded on 2021-10-08 at 15:28:49 for $3.3 and, as of today, has 30 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $3.0, and an ask price of $3.2. The implied volatility as of the 20th of October is 148.741.
 Profit 
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      Heat Biologics Price At Expiration 

Heat Biologics Investment Opportunity

Heat Biologics has a volatility of 2.54 and is 3.53 times more volatile than DOW. 21  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Heat Biologics. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Heat Biologics is lower than 21 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Heat Biologics to enhance returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences an unexpected upward trend. Watch out for market signals. Check odds of Heat Biologics to be traded at $6.86 in 90 days. . Let's try to break down what Heat Biologics's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Heat Biologics returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Heat Biologics will be expected to be smaller as well.

Average diversification

The correlation between Heat Biologics and DJI is Average diversification for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Heat Biologics and DJI in the same portfolio assuming nothing else is changed.

Heat Biologics Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Heat Biologics' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Heat Biologics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Heat Biologics stock risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Risk Adjusted Performance(0.034481)
Market Risk Adjusted Performance(0.45)
Mean Deviation1.94
Coefficient Of Variation(1,774)
Standard Deviation2.55
Variance6.52
Information Ratio(0.08)
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Heat Biologics Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
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The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Heat Biologics as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Heat Biologics' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Heat Biologics' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Heat Biologics.
Please check Risk vs Return Analysis. Note that the Heat Biologics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Heat Biologics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

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When running Heat Biologics price analysis, check to measure Heat Biologics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Heat Biologics is operating at the current time. Most of Heat Biologics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Heat Biologics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Heat Biologics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Heat Biologics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Heat Biologics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Heat Biologics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Heat Biologics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Heat Biologics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Heat Biologics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Heat Biologics underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Heat Biologics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Heat Biologics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Heat Biologics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.