Northern Oil Gas Stock Volatility
| NOG Stock | USD 42.35 0.29 0.68% |
Northern Oil appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Northern Oil Gas has Sharpe Ratio of 0.25, which conveys that the firm had a 0.25% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Northern Oil, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise Northern Oil's Downside Deviation of 1.78, risk adjusted performance of 0.1254, and Mean Deviation of 1.16 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. Key indicators related to Northern Oil's volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Northern Oil Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Northern daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Northern's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Northern Oil volatility.
Northern |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Northern Oil can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Northern Oil at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Northern stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Northern Oil's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving together with Northern Stock
| 0.92 | AR | Antero Resources Corp Financial Report 24th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.92 | PR | Permian Resources Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | SD | SandRidge Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.93 | SM | SM Energy Financial Report 25th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.89 | DMLP | Dorchester Minerals | PairCorr |
| 0.9 | VIST | Vista Oil Gas Financial Report 23rd of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.91 | VTLE | Vital Energy Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Northern Stock
Northern Oil Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Northern Oil's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Northern stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Northern stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Northern Oil's beta of 1.06 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Northern Oil stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Northern Oil Gas has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.42 and kurtosis of 1.41. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Northern Oil's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Northern Oil's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Northern Oil Gas Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Northern Oil correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Northern Beta |
Northern standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 1.52 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Northern Oil's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Northern Oil's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in northern stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Northern Oil.
Using Northern Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on Northern Oil grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Northern Oil at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Northern Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Northern Oil's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Northern Oil will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
Northern Oil's PUT expiring on 2024-04-19
Profit |
| Northern Oil Price At Expiration |
Current Northern Oil Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $43.0 | -0.6767 | 0.2662 | 5 | 2024-04-19 | 0.85 - 1.0 | 0.0 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $42.0 | -0.3844 | 0.2989 | 74 | 2024-04-19 | 0.3 - 0.4 | 0.62 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $41.0 | -0.1451 | 0.1725 | 153 | 2024-04-19 | 0.05 - 0.15 | 0.13 | View |
Northern Oil Gas Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Northern Oil stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Northern Oil's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Northern Oil's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Northern Oil's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Northern Oil's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Northern Oil's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Northern Oil's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Northern Oil's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Northern Oil Gas Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Northern Oil Projected Return Density Against Market
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.0604 . This indicates Northern Oil Gas market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Northern Oil is expected to follow.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Northern Oil or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Northern Oil's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Northern stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Northern Oil Gas has an alpha of 0.2334, implying that it can generate a 0.23 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Northern Oil Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Northern Oil Stock Risk Measures
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Northern Oil is 400.31. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 2.31 and standard deviation of 1.52. The mean deviation of Northern Oil Gas is currently at 1.11. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.63
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.23 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.52 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.15 |
Northern Oil Stock Return Volatility
Northern Oil historical daily return volatility represents how much of Northern Oil stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company has volatility of 1.5195% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6245% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Northern Oil Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Northern Oil or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Northern Oil may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Northern's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Northern Oil and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Northern Oil fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | -9.4 M | -9.8 M | |
| Market Cap | 3.4 B | 3.6 B |
Northern Oil's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Northern Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Northern Oil's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Northern Oil's volatility to invest better
Higher Northern Oil's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Northern Oil Gas stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Northern Oil Gas stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Northern Oil Gas investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Northern Oil's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Northern Oil's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Northern Oil Investment Opportunity
Northern Oil Gas has a volatility of 1.52 and is 2.45 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Northern Oil Gas is lower than 13 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Northern Oil Gas to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The stock experiences a moderate downward daily trend and can be a good diversifier. Check odds of Northern Oil to be traded at $41.5 in 90 days.Very weak diversification
The correlation between Northern Oil Gas and NYA is 0.42 (i.e., Very weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Northern Oil Gas and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Northern Oil Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northern Oil's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Northern Oil stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1254 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2828 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 525.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Northern Oil Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Northern Oil as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Northern Oil's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Northern Oil's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Northern Oil Gas.
When determining whether Northern Oil Gas is a strong investment it is important to analyze Northern Oil's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Northern Oil's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Northern Stock, refer to the following important reports: Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Northern Oil Gas. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Northern Stock analysis
When running Northern Oil's price analysis, check to measure Northern Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northern Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Oil. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.379 | Dividend Share 1.49 | Earnings Share 10.03 | Revenue Per Share 19.095 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.226 |
The market value of Northern Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Northern Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.