Northern Stock Volatility

NOG Stock  USD 31.96  0.36  1.14%   
Northern Oil Gas has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0421, which conveys that the firm had -0.0421% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Northern Oil exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to verify Northern Oil Gas risk adjusted performance of (0.012802), and Mean Deviation of 2.27 to check out the risk estimate we provide.
  
Northern Oil Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Northern daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Northern's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Northern Oil volatility.

30 Days Market Risk

Very steady

Chance of Distress

Below Average

30 Days Economic Sensitivity

Actively responds to the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Northern Oil can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Northern Oil at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Northern stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Northern Oil's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with Northern Oil

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+0.83BSMBlack Stone MineralsPairCorr
+0.62CHKChesapeake Energy CorpPairCorr
+0.78CNQCanadian Natural ResPairCorr
+0.8COPConocoPhillipsPairCorr
+0.9CPGCrescent Point EnergyPairCorr

Northern Oil Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

Northern Oil's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Northern stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Northern stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Northern Oil's beta of 1.68 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Northern Oil stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
Northern Oil Gas exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.0 and kurtosis of -0.32. However, we advise investors to further study Northern Oil Gas technical indicators to ensure that all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Northern Oil's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Northern Oil's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Northern Oil Gas Demand Trend
Check current 90 days Northern Oil correlation with market (NYSE Composite)

Northern Beta

    
  1.68  
Northern standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  2.82  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Northern Oil's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Northern Oil's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in northern stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Northern Oil.

Using Northern Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on Northern Oil grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Northern Oil at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Northern Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Northern Oil's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Northern Oil will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

Northern Oil's PUT expiring on 2023-02-17

   Profit   
       Northern Oil Price At Expiration  

Current Northern Oil Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $38.0-0.92290.038812023-02-175.8 - 6.58.4View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $37.0-0.89380.0512112023-02-174.8 - 5.64.7View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $36.0-0.8810.0644132023-02-173.8 - 4.62.2View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $35.0-0.80630.0868632023-02-173.2 - 3.51.6View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $34.0-0.7290.1107582023-02-172.3 - 2.73.3View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $33.0-0.61040.12483112023-02-171.75 - 1.91.55View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $32.0-0.4850.1343142023-02-171.2 - 1.351.2View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $31.0-0.35940.11732092023-02-170.75 - 0.90.6View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $30.0-0.23810.1018752023-02-170.45 - 0.60.45View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $29.0-0.14790.07381652023-02-170.25 - 0.40.25View
Put
2023-02-17 PUT at $28.0-0.10120.05094402023-02-170.1 - 0.250.2View
View All Northern Oil Options

Northern Oil Gas Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which Northern Oil stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Northern Oil's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Northern Oil's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Northern Oil's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures Northern Oil's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Northern Oil's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Northern Oil's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Northern Oil's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Developed by Larry Williams, the Weighted Close is the average of Northern Oil Gas high, low and close of a chart with the close values weighted twice. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes only Northern Oil closing price as input.
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Northern Oil Projected Return Density Against Market

Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.6822 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Northern Oil will likely underperform.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Northern Oil or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Northern Oil's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Northern stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. Northern Oil Gas is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
Northern Oil's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how northern stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives a Northern Oil Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

Northern Oil Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Northern Oil or Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Northern Oil's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Northern stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the coefficient of variation of Northern Oil is -2372.82. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 7.93 and standard deviation of 2.82. The mean deviation of Northern Oil Gas is currently at 2.28. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 1.11
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.26
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.68
σ
Overall volatility
2.82
Ir
Information ratio -0.06

Northern Oil Stock Return Volatility

Northern Oil historical daily return volatility represents how much of Northern Oil stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm has volatility of 2.816% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 1.1002% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About Northern Oil Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Northern Oil or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Northern Oil may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Northern's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Northern Oil and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Northern Oil fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2023
Market Capitalization361.5 M498 M
Northern Oil's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Northern Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Northern Oil's price varies over time.

3 ways to utilize Northern Oil's volatility to invest better

Higher Northern Oil's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Northern Oil Gas stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Northern Oil Gas stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:
  • Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Northern Oil Gas investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
  • Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Northern Oil's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
  • Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Northern Oil's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Remember it's essential to remember that stock volatility is just one of many factors to consider when making investment decisions, and it should be used in conjunction with other fundamental and technical analysis tools.

Northern Oil Investment Opportunity

Northern Oil Gas has a volatility of 2.82 and is 2.56 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. 24  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Northern Oil. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Northern Oil Gas is lower than 24 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use Northern Oil Gas to enhance the returns of your portfolios. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences a large bullish trend. Check odds of Northern Oil to be traded at $35.16 in 90 days.

Poor diversification

The correlation between Northern Oil Gas and NYA is 0.67 (i.e., Poor diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Northern Oil Gas and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

Northern Oil Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of Northern Oil's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Northern Oil stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Northern Oil Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Northern Oil as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Northern Oil's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Northern Oil's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Northern Oil Gas.
Additionally, see Correlation Analysis. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

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When running Northern Oil Gas price analysis, check to measure Northern Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Northern Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Northern Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Northern Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Northern Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Northern Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Northern Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Northern Oil. If investors know Northern will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Northern Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
51.103
Market Capitalization
2.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth
1.051
Return On Assets
0.2997
Return On Equity
2.9123
The market value of Northern Oil Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Northern that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Northern Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Northern Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Northern Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Northern Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Northern Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Northern Oil value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Northern Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.