Northern Government Fund Volatility
| NOUGX Fund | USD 8.56 0.01 0.12% |
Northern Government has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0999, which conveys that the entity had a -0.0999% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Northern Government exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Northern Government's Mean Deviation of 0.2467, standard deviation of 0.3253, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07) to check out the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Northern Government's volatility include:
720 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 720 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Northern Government Mutual Fund volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Northern daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Northern's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Northern Government volatility.
Northern |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Northern Government can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Northern Government at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Northern stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Northern Government's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving together with Northern Mutual Fund
| 0.97 | VFIJX | Vanguard Gnma | PairCorr |
| 0.98 | VSIGX | Vanguard Intermediate | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | UGSFX | Us Government Securities | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | AMUSX | Us Government Securities | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | FSUGX | American Funds Government | PairCorr |
| 0.98 | UGSCX | Us Government Securities | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | FSUUX | American Funds Government | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | VMBSX | Vanguard Mortgage-backed | PairCorr |
| 0.97 | VFIIX | Vanguard Gnma | PairCorr |
Moving against Northern Mutual Fund
| 0.75 | PQTIX | Aa Pimco Tr | PairCorr |
| 0.75 | PQTNX | Pimco Trends Managed | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | GPMFX | Guidepath Managed Futures | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | PQTAX | Pimco Trends Managed | PairCorr |
Northern Government Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Northern Government's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Northern mutual fund compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Northern mutual fund's returns against your selected market. In other words, Northern Government's beta of -0.0175 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Northern Government mutual fund can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Northern Government Fund exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -1.01 and kurtosis of 1.21. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Northern Government's mutual fund risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Northern Government's mutual fund price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Northern Government Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Northern Government correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Northern Beta |
Northern standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 0.33 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Northern Government's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Northern Government's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in northern mutual fund tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Northern Government.
Northern Government Mutual Fund Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Northern Government fund price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Northern Government's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Northern Government's mutual fund to predict their future moves. A fund that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A mutual fund with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile fund is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Northern Government's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of fund volatility measures Northern Government's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Northern Government's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the mutual fund.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Northern Government's current market price. This means that the fund will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Northern Government's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Northern Government Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Northern Government Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days horizon Northern Government Fund has a beta of -0.0175 . This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Northern Government are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Northern Government Fund is likely to outperform the market.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Northern Government or Northern Funds sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Northern Government's price will be affected by overall mutual fund market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Northern fund's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Northern Government Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Northern Government Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a fund's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Northern Government Mutual Fund Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days horizon the coefficient of variation of Northern Government is -1000.74. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 0.11 and standard deviation of 0.33. The mean deviation of Northern Government Fund is currently at 0.25. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.62
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.39 |
Northern Government Mutual Fund Return Volatility
Northern Government historical daily return volatility represents how much of Northern Government fund's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The fund shows 0.3253% volatility of returns over 90 . By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6321% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Northern Government Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Northern Government or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Northern Government may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Northern's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Northern Government and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Northern Government fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.The fund will invest at least 80 percent of its net assets in securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S. government or by its agencies, instrumentalities or sponsored enterprises and repurchase agreements relating to such securities. Northern Funds is traded on NASDAQ Exchange in the United States.
Northern Government's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Northern Mutual Fund over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Northern Government's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Northern Government's volatility to invest better
Higher Northern Government's fund volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Northern Government fund is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Northern Government fund volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Northern Government investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Northern Government's fund can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Northern Government's fund relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Northern Government Investment Opportunity
NYSE Composite has a standard deviation of returns of 0.63 and is 1.91 times more volatile than Northern Government Fund. 2 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Northern Government. You can use Northern Government Fund to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The mutual fund experiences a normal upward fluctuation. Check odds of Northern Government to be traded at $8.99 in 90 days.Good diversification
The correlation between Northern Government Fund and NYA is -0.03 (i.e., Good diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Northern Government Fund and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Northern Government Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Northern Government's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Northern Government's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Northern Government mutual fund's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 2.44 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.2467 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (1,001) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.3253 | |||
| Variance | 0.1058 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.39) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential mutual funds, we recommend comparing similar funds with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Northern Government Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Northern Government as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Northern Government's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Northern Government's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Northern Government Fund.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Northern Government Fund. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price. Note that the Northern Government information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Northern Government's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.