Douglas Dynamics Stock Volatility
| PLOW Stock | USD 22.01 0.20 0.92% |
Douglas Dynamics secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.12, which denotes the company had a -0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Douglas Dynamics exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Douglas Dynamics' Variance of 6.37, standard deviation of 2.52, and Mean Deviation of 1.76 to check the risk estimate we provide. Key indicators related to Douglas Dynamics' volatility include:
30 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 30 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Douglas Dynamics Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Douglas daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Douglas's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Douglas Dynamics volatility.
Douglas |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Douglas Dynamics can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Douglas Dynamics at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Douglas stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Douglas Dynamics' stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving together with Douglas Stock
Moving against Douglas Stock
| 0.75 | WAB | Westinghouse Air Brake Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | FIP | FTAI Infrastructure | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | GFF | Griffon Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.55 | IGC | India Globalization | PairCorr |
| 0.5 | MMM | 3M Company Report 23rd of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | FSTR | LB Foster Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Douglas Dynamics Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Douglas Dynamics' beta coefficient measures the volatility of Douglas stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Douglas stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, Douglas Dynamics's beta of 1.5 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Douglas Dynamics stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Douglas Dynamics exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -1.37 and kurtosis of 5.62. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Douglas Dynamics' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Douglas Dynamics' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Douglas Dynamics Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Douglas Dynamics correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Douglas Beta |
Douglas standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 2.53 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Douglas Dynamics's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Douglas Dynamics' daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in douglas stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Douglas Dynamics.
Using Douglas Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on Douglas Dynamics grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of Douglas Dynamics at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of Douglas Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge Douglas Dynamics' position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding Douglas Dynamics will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
Douglas Dynamics' PUT expiring on 2024-04-19
Profit |
| Douglas Dynamics Price At Expiration |
Current Douglas Dynamics Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $25.0 | -0.821 | 0.0918 | 1 | 2024-04-19 | 2.5 - 4.0 | 1.33 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $22.5 | -0.6359 | 0.292 | 461 | 2024-04-19 | 0.1 - 0.8 | 0.85 | View |
Douglas Dynamics Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Douglas Dynamics stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Douglas Dynamics' price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Douglas Dynamics' stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Douglas Dynamics' volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures Douglas Dynamics' fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Douglas Dynamics' future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Douglas Dynamics' current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Douglas Dynamics' to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Douglas Dynamics Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Douglas Dynamics Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.5016 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Douglas Dynamics will likely underperform.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Douglas Dynamics or Machinery sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Douglas Dynamics' price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Douglas stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Douglas Dynamics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Douglas Dynamics Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Douglas Dynamics Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of Douglas Dynamics is -814.18. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 6.38 and standard deviation of 2.53. The mean deviation of Douglas Dynamics is currently at 1.76. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.62
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.31 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.50 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.53 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Douglas Dynamics Stock Return Volatility
Douglas Dynamics historical daily return volatility represents how much of Douglas Dynamics stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The venture inherits 2.5255% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6214% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Douglas Dynamics Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Douglas Dynamics or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Douglas Dynamics may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Douglas's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Douglas Dynamics and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Douglas Dynamics fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 4.2 M | 3.4 M | |
| Market Cap | 681.5 M | 429.6 M |
Douglas Dynamics' stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on Douglas Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much Douglas Dynamics' price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize Douglas Dynamics' volatility to invest better
Higher Douglas Dynamics' stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Douglas Dynamics stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Douglas Dynamics stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Douglas Dynamics investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Douglas Dynamics' stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Douglas Dynamics' stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Douglas Dynamics Investment Opportunity
Douglas Dynamics has a volatility of 2.53 and is 4.08 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of Douglas Dynamics is lower than 22 percent of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. You can use Douglas Dynamics to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a moderate upward volatility. Check odds of Douglas Dynamics to be traded at $24.21 in 90 days.Weak diversification
The correlation between Douglas Dynamics and NYA is 0.37 (i.e., Weak diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Douglas Dynamics and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Douglas Dynamics Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Douglas Dynamics' secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Douglas Dynamics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Douglas Dynamics stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.14) | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | (1,205) | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.37 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Douglas Dynamics Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Douglas Dynamics as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Douglas Dynamics' systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Douglas Dynamics' unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Douglas Dynamics.
When determining whether Douglas Dynamics is a strong investment it is important to analyze Douglas Dynamics' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Douglas Dynamics' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Douglas Stock, refer to the following important reports: Check out Your Equity Center to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Douglas Dynamics. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in persons. For more information on how to buy Douglas Stock please use our How to Invest in Douglas Dynamics guide.You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for Douglas Stock analysis
When running Douglas Dynamics' price analysis, check to measure Douglas Dynamics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Douglas Dynamics is operating at the current time. Most of Douglas Dynamics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Douglas Dynamics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Douglas Dynamics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Douglas Dynamics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Douglas Dynamics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Douglas Dynamics. If investors know Douglas will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Douglas Dynamics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.41) | Dividend Share 1.18 | Earnings Share 0.98 | Revenue Per Share 24.744 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) |
The market value of Douglas Dynamics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Douglas that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Douglas Dynamics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Douglas Dynamics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Douglas Dynamics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Douglas Dynamics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Douglas Dynamics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Douglas Dynamics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Douglas Dynamics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.