APS Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| 054620 Stock | KRW 6,800 160.00 2.41% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of APS Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 7,067 with a mean absolute deviation of 117.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,192. APS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast APS Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of APS Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of APS Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
APS |
Most investors in APS Holdings cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the APS Holdings' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets APS Holdings' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for APS Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of APS Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. APS Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of APS Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 7,067 with a mean absolute deviation of 117.91, mean absolute percentage error of 21,055, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,192.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict APS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that APS Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
APS Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
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APS Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting APS Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. APS Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7,065 and 7,069, respectively. We have considered APS Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of APS Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent APS Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 128.0654 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 117.9065 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7192.294 |
Predictive Modules for APS Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as APS Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of APS Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for APS Holdings
For every potential investor in APS, whether a beginner or expert, APS Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. APS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in APS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying APS Holdings' price trends.APS Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with APS Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of APS Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing APS Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
APS Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of APS Holdings' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of APS Holdings' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
APS Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how APS Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading APS Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying APS Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify APS Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0433 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.5333 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6780.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6786.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 300.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 100.0 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 160.0 |
APS Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of APS Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in APS Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aps stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.56 | |||
| Variance | 6.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.74 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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APS Holdings financial ratios help investors to determine whether APS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in APS with respect to the benefits of owning APS Holdings security.