Ligitek Electronics Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| 8111 Stock | TWD 23.30 0.35 1.48% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ligitek Electronics Co on the next trading day is expected to be 23.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.80. Ligitek Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Ligitek |
Most investors in Ligitek Electronics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Ligitek Electronics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Ligitek Electronics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Ligitek Electronics - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Ligitek Electronics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Ligitek Electronics price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Ligitek Electronics. Ligitek Electronics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ligitek Electronics Co on the next trading day is expected to be 23.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.80.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ligitek Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ligitek Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ligitek Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Ligitek Electronics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ligitek Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ligitek Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20.82 and 25.68, respectively. We have considered Ligitek Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ligitek Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ligitek Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1017 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4133 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.8 |
Predictive Modules for Ligitek Electronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ligitek Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ligitek Electronics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Ligitek Electronics
For every potential investor in Ligitek, whether a beginner or expert, Ligitek Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ligitek Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ligitek. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ligitek Electronics' price trends.Ligitek Electronics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ligitek Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ligitek Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ligitek Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ligitek Electronics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ligitek Electronics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ligitek Electronics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ligitek Electronics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ligitek Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ligitek Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ligitek Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ligitek Electronics Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13584.66 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.35) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 23.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 23.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.62) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.35) |
Ligitek Electronics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ligitek Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ligitek Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ligitek stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.11) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When running Ligitek Electronics' price analysis, check to measure Ligitek Electronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ligitek Electronics is operating at the current time. Most of Ligitek Electronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ligitek Electronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ligitek Electronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ligitek Electronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.