Adobe Systems Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ADBE Stock | USD 482.29 0.36 0.07% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Adobe Systems Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 481.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 597.67. Adobe Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Adobe Systems stock prices and determine the direction of Adobe Systems Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Adobe Systems' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Adobe Systems' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Adobe Systems' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Adobe Systems fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adobe Systems to cross-verify your projections. Adobe |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Adobe Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Adobe Systems' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Adobe Systems' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Adobe Systems stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Adobe Systems' open interest, investors have to compare it to Adobe Systems' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Adobe Systems is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Adobe. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Adobe Systems cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Adobe Systems' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Adobe Systems' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Adobe Systems - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Adobe Systems prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Adobe Systems price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Adobe Systems. Adobe Systems Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Adobe Systems Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 481.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.13, mean absolute percentage error of 268.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 597.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adobe Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adobe Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Adobe Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adobe Systems | Adobe Systems Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Adobe Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Adobe Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Adobe Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 478.87 and 483.74, respectively. We have considered Adobe Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adobe Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adobe Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.1911 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.13 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0196 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 597.6714 |
Predictive Modules for Adobe Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Adobe Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Adobe Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Adobe Systems
For every potential investor in Adobe, whether a beginner or expert, Adobe Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Adobe Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Adobe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Adobe Systems' price trends.Adobe Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Adobe Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Adobe Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Adobe Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adobe Systems Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Adobe Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Adobe Systems' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Adobe Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Adobe Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Adobe Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Adobe Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Adobe Systems Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0188 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 484.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 484.02 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 9.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.78) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.36) |
Adobe Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Adobe Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Adobe Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adobe stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.43 | |||
| Variance | 5.89 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Adobe Systems
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Adobe Systems position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Adobe Systems will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Adobe Stock
| 0.93 | S | SentinelOne Financial Report 6th of June 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Adobe Stock
| 0.84 | NN | Nextnav Acquisition Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | GB | Global Blue Group | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | VERI | Veritone | PairCorr |
| 0.54 | DTSS | Datasea | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | EGIO | Edgio Inc Report 17th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Adobe Systems could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Adobe Systems when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Adobe Systems - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Adobe Systems Incorporated to buy it.
The correlation of Adobe Systems is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Adobe Systems moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Adobe Systems moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Adobe Systems can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Adobe Systems to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Adobe Systems information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Adobe Systems' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for Adobe Stock analysis
When running Adobe Systems' price analysis, check to measure Adobe Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Adobe Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Adobe Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Adobe Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Adobe Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Adobe Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Adobe Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Adobe Systems. If investors know Adobe will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Adobe Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Earnings Share 10.47 | Revenue Per Share 43.762 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.113 | Return On Assets 0.1572 |
The market value of Adobe Systems is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Adobe that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Adobe Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Adobe Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Adobe Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Adobe Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Adobe Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Adobe Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Adobe Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.