Addex Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ADXN Stock  USD 8.01  0.78  8.87%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Addex Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 12.70 with a mean absolute deviation of  2.46  and the sum of the absolute errors of 150.24. Addex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Addex Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Addex Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Addex Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Addex Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Addex Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Addex Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Addex Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Addex Stock, please use our How to Invest in Addex Therapeutics guide.
  
At this time, Addex Therapeutics' Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 26th of May 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.36, though Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to (0.01). . As of the 26th of May 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 78 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (17.8 M).
Most investors in Addex Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Addex Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Addex Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Addex Therapeutics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Addex Therapeutics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Addex Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Addex Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 12.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.46, mean absolute percentage error of 9.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 150.24.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Addex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Addex Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Addex Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Addex Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Addex Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Addex Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.96 and 22.44, respectively. We have considered Addex Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
8.01
12.70
Expected Value
22.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Addex Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Addex Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.3536
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.4629
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.2017
SAESum of the absolute errors150.237
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Addex Therapeutics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Addex Therapeutics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Addex Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Addex Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Addex Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.367.2917.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.387.6917.43
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Addex Therapeutics. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Addex Therapeutics' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Addex Therapeutics' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Addex Therapeutics.

Other Forecasting Options for Addex Therapeutics

For every potential investor in Addex, whether a beginner or expert, Addex Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Addex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Addex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Addex Therapeutics' price trends.

Addex Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Addex Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Addex Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Addex Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Addex Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Addex Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Addex Therapeutics' current price.

Addex Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Addex Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Addex Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Addex Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Addex Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Addex Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Addex Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Addex Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting addex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Addex Therapeutics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Addex Therapeutics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Addex Therapeutics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Addex Therapeutics Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Addex Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Addex Stock, please use our How to Invest in Addex Therapeutics guide.
You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.

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When running Addex Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Addex Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Addex Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Addex Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Addex Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Addex Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Addex Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Addex Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Addex Therapeutics. If investors know Addex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Addex Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(18.35)
Revenue Per Share
2.64
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.69)
Return On Assets
(0.99)
Return On Equity
(3.48)
The market value of Addex Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Addex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Addex Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Addex Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Addex Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Addex Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Addex Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Addex Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Addex Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.