Allurion Technologies Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| ALUR Stock | 1.23 0.16 11.51% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Allurion Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.92. Allurion Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Allurion Technologies' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Allurion Technologies' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Allurion Technologies fundamentals over time.
Allurion |
Most investors in Allurion Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Allurion Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Allurion Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Allurion Technologies is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Allurion Technologies 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Allurion Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 1.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allurion Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allurion Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allurion Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
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Allurion Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allurion Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allurion Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 14.17, respectively. We have considered Allurion Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allurion Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allurion Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.0515 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0671 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1741 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0871 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.925 |
Predictive Modules for Allurion Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allurion Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allurion Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Allurion Technologies
For every potential investor in Allurion, whether a beginner or expert, Allurion Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allurion Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allurion. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allurion Technologies' price trends.Allurion Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allurion Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allurion Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allurion Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allurion Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allurion Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allurion Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allurion Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allurion Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allurion Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allurion Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allurion Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Allurion Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allurion Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allurion Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allurion stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 6.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.82 | |||
| Variance | 139.83 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When running Allurion Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Allurion Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allurion Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Allurion Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allurion Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allurion Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allurion Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.