Axcella Health Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| AXLADelisted Stock | USD 3.20 0.90 21.95% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Axcella Health on the next trading day is expected to be 4.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.22. Axcella Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Axcella Health stock prices and determine the direction of Axcella Health's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Axcella Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis. Axcella |
Most investors in Axcella Health cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Axcella Health's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Axcella Health's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Axcella Health is based on an artificially constructed time series of Axcella Health daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Axcella Health 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Axcella Health on the next trading day is expected to be 4.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.32, mean absolute percentage error of 15.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Axcella Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Axcella Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Axcella Health Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Axcella Health | Axcella Health Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Axcella Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Axcella Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.1469 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.1992 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.325 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.2514 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.2238 |
Predictive Modules for Axcella Health
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Axcella Health. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Axcella Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View Axcella Health Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Axcella Health Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Axcella Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Axcella Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Axcella Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Axcella Health entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Axcella Health Risk Indicators
The analysis of Axcella Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Axcella Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting axcella stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 18.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 12.62 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 42.19 | |||
| Variance | 1779.76 | |||
| Downside Variance | 189.86 | |||
| Semi Variance | 159.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (31.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Axcella Health
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Axcella Health position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Axcella Health will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Axcella Stock
| 0.56 | AA | Alcoa Corp Financial Report 17th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.51 | MMM | 3M Company Financial Report 23rd of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.45 | GE | GE Aerospace Financial Report 23rd of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.42 | CVX | Chevron Corp Financial Report 26th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Axcella Health could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Axcella Health when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Axcella Health - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Axcella Health to buy it.
The correlation of Axcella Health is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Axcella Health moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Axcella Health moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Axcella Health can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in bureau of economic analysis. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Other Consideration for investing in Axcella Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Axcella Health check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Axcella Health's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Sign In To Macroaxis Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules |