Bumi Resources Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| BRMS Stock | IDR 135.00 1.00 0.75% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bumi Resources Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 135.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.00. Bumi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Bumi |
Most investors in Bumi Resources cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bumi Resources' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bumi Resources' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Bumi Resources is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. Bumi Resources Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Bumi Resources Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 135.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.08, mean absolute percentage error of 16.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 182.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bumi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bumi Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bumi Resources Stock Forecast Pattern
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Bumi Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bumi Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bumi Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 132.74 and 137.26, respectively. We have considered Bumi Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bumi Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bumi Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2594 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.322 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.0847 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0203 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 182.0 |
Predictive Modules for Bumi Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bumi Resources Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bumi Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bumi Resources
For every potential investor in Bumi, whether a beginner or expert, Bumi Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bumi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bumi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bumi Resources' price trends.Bumi Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bumi Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bumi Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bumi Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bumi Resources Minerals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bumi Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bumi Resources' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bumi Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bumi Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bumi Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bumi Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bumi Resources Minerals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bumi Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bumi Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bumi Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bumi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Variance | 6.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Bumi Stock
Bumi Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bumi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bumi with respect to the benefits of owning Bumi Resources security.