Computer Direct Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| CMDR Stock | ILS 26,810 600.00 2.19% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Computer Direct on the next trading day is expected to be 26,791 with a mean absolute deviation of 436.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26,207. Computer Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Computer Direct stock prices and determine the direction of Computer Direct's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Computer Direct's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. Computer |
Most investors in Computer Direct cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Computer Direct's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Computer Direct's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Computer Direct - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Computer Direct prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Computer Direct price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Computer Direct. Computer Direct Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Computer Direct on the next trading day is expected to be 26,791 with a mean absolute deviation of 436.79, mean absolute percentage error of 368,833, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26,207.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Computer Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Computer Direct's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Computer Direct Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Computer Direct | Computer Direct Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Computer Direct stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Computer Direct stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -48.2753 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 436.7907 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0162 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26207.4433 |
Predictive Modules for Computer Direct
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Computer Direct. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Computer Direct's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Computer Direct Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Computer Direct stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Computer Direct could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Computer Direct by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Computer Direct Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Computer Direct stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Computer Direct shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Computer Direct stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Computer Direct entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 10.78 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.05) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 27095.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 27000.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (585.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (600.00) |
Computer Direct Risk Indicators
The analysis of Computer Direct's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Computer Direct's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting computer stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Variance | 4.71 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.99 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.96) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Computer Direct in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Computer Direct's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Computer Direct options trading.
Pair Trading with Computer Direct
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Computer Direct position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Computer Direct will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Computer Stock
| 0.79 | PZOL | Paz Oil | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | EXPO | Export Inv | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Computer Direct could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Computer Direct when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Computer Direct - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Computer Direct to buy it.
The correlation of Computer Direct is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Computer Direct moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Computer Direct moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Computer Direct can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Complementary Tools for Computer Stock analysis
When running Computer Direct's price analysis, check to measure Computer Direct's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Computer Direct is operating at the current time. Most of Computer Direct's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Computer Direct's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Computer Direct's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Computer Direct to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Sign In To Macroaxis Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| FinTech Suite Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Dashboard Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios | |
| Portfolio Comparator Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators |