Commercial Vehicle Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| CVGI Stock | USD 5.28 0.16 3.13% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial Vehicle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 5.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78. Commercial Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Commercial Vehicle's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Commercial |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Commercial Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Commercial Vehicle's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Commercial Vehicle's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Commercial Vehicle stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Commercial Vehicle's open interest, investors have to compare it to Commercial Vehicle's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Commercial Vehicle is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Commercial. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Commercial Vehicle cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Commercial Vehicle's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Commercial Vehicle's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Commercial Vehicle simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Commercial Vehicle Group are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Commercial Vehicle prices get older. Commercial Vehicle Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Commercial Vehicle Group on the next trading day is expected to be 5.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Commercial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Commercial Vehicle's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Commercial Vehicle Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Commercial Vehicle | Commercial Vehicle Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Commercial Vehicle Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Commercial Vehicle's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Commercial Vehicle's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.00 and 7.51, respectively. We have considered Commercial Vehicle's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Commercial Vehicle stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Commercial Vehicle stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.1566 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0244 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0964 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.7842 |
Predictive Modules for Commercial Vehicle
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Commercial Vehicle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Commercial Vehicle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Commercial Vehicle
For every potential investor in Commercial, whether a beginner or expert, Commercial Vehicle's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Commercial Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Commercial. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Commercial Vehicle's price trends.Commercial Vehicle Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Commercial Vehicle stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Commercial Vehicle could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Commercial Vehicle by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Commercial Vehicle Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Commercial Vehicle's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Commercial Vehicle's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Commercial Vehicle Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Commercial Vehicle stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Commercial Vehicle shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Commercial Vehicle stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Commercial Vehicle Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Commercial Vehicle Risk Indicators
The analysis of Commercial Vehicle's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Commercial Vehicle's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting commercial stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.18 | |||
| Variance | 4.74 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Commercial Stock
When determining whether Commercial Vehicle offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Commercial Vehicle's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Commercial Vehicle Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Commercial Vehicle Group Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Commercial Vehicle to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Is Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Commercial Vehicle. If investors know Commercial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Commercial Vehicle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.66) | Earnings Share 1.3 | Revenue Per Share 29.077 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.12) | Return On Assets 0.0536 |
The market value of Commercial Vehicle is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Commercial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Commercial Vehicle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Commercial Vehicle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Commercial Vehicle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Commercial Vehicle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Commercial Vehicle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commercial Vehicle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commercial Vehicle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.