EVN AG Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| EVN Stock | EUR 29.30 0.20 0.69% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of EVN AG on the next trading day is expected to be 29.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.70. EVN Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of EVN AG's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
EVN |
Most investors in EVN AG cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the EVN AG's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets EVN AG's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for EVN AG is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. EVN AG Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of EVN AG on the next trading day is expected to be 29.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict EVN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that EVN AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
EVN AG Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest EVN AG | EVN AG Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
EVN AG Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting EVN AG's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. EVN AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.59 and 30.01, respectively. We have considered EVN AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of EVN AG stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent EVN AG stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.8181 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1246 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1983 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0073 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.7 |
Predictive Modules for EVN AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as EVN AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of EVN AG's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for EVN AG
For every potential investor in EVN, whether a beginner or expert, EVN AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. EVN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in EVN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying EVN AG's price trends.EVN AG Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with EVN AG stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of EVN AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing EVN AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
EVN AG Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of EVN AG's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of EVN AG's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
EVN AG Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how EVN AG stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading EVN AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying EVN AG stock market strength indicators, traders can identify EVN AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
EVN AG Risk Indicators
The analysis of EVN AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in EVN AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting evn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5001 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7085 | |||
| Variance | 0.502 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5146 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.12) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
| CXSE3 | Caixa Seguridade Participaes | |
| MULT3 | Multiplan Empreendimentos Imobilirios | |
| SUZB3 | Suzano SA | |
| CSAN3 | Cosan SA | |
| VALE3 | Vale SA |
Other Information on Investing in EVN Stock
EVN AG financial ratios help investors to determine whether EVN Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EVN with respect to the benefits of owning EVN AG security.