Farmers Bancorp Pink Sheet Forecast - Polynomial Regression

FABP Stock  USD 39.00  0.05  0.13%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Farmers Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 39.66 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.44  and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.92. Farmers Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Farmers Bancorp stock prices and determine the direction of Farmers Bancorp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Farmers Bancorp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Farmers Bancorp cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Farmers Bancorp's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Farmers Bancorp's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Farmers Bancorp polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Farmers Bancorp as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Farmers Bancorp Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Farmers Bancorp on the next trading day is expected to be 39.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.44, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.92.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Farmers Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Farmers Bancorp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Farmers Bancorp Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Farmers Bancorp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Farmers Bancorp's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Farmers Bancorp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.82 and 40.50, respectively. We have considered Farmers Bancorp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39.00
39.66
Expected Value
40.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Farmers Bancorp pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Farmers Bancorp pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7457
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4413
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0112
SAESum of the absolute errors26.9164
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Farmers Bancorp historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Farmers Bancorp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Farmers Bancorp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Farmers Bancorp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
38.1639.0039.84
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
35.4836.3242.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
38.5139.5040.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Farmers Bancorp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Farmers Bancorp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Farmers Bancorp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Farmers Bancorp.

Other Forecasting Options for Farmers Bancorp

For every potential investor in Farmers, whether a beginner or expert, Farmers Bancorp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Farmers Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Farmers. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Farmers Bancorp's price trends.

Farmers Bancorp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Farmers Bancorp pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Farmers Bancorp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Farmers Bancorp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Farmers Bancorp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Farmers Bancorp's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Farmers Bancorp's current price.

Farmers Bancorp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Farmers Bancorp pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Farmers Bancorp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Farmers Bancorp pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Farmers Bancorp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Farmers Bancorp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Farmers Bancorp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Farmers Bancorp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting farmers pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Farmers Bancorp to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Farmers Bancorp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Farmers Bancorp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Complementary Tools for Farmers Pink Sheet analysis

When running Farmers Bancorp's price analysis, check to measure Farmers Bancorp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Farmers Bancorp is operating at the current time. Most of Farmers Bancorp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Farmers Bancorp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Farmers Bancorp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Farmers Bancorp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Farmers Bancorp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Farmers Bancorp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Farmers Bancorp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.