First Financial Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FFIN Stock | USD 30.76 0.17 0.56% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Financial Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 31.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.92. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Financial stock prices and determine the direction of First Financial Bankshares's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although First Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Financial to cross-verify your projections. First |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 First Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast First Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in First Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for First Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current First Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to First Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of First Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in First. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in First Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for First Financial is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of First Financial Bankshares value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. First Financial Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of First Financial Bankshares on the next trading day is expected to be 31.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Financial | First Financial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
First Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.75 and 33.74, respectively. We have considered First Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3451 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6116 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.9187 |
Predictive Modules for First Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Financial Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for First Financial
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Financial's price trends.View First Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Financial Bank Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Financial Bankshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 5628.69 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2537 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 30.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 30.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.03) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.17 |
First Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
First Financial Investors Sentiment
The influence of First Financial's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in First. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to First Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in First. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding First can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around First Financial Bankshares. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
First Financial's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for First Financial's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average First Financial's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on First Financial.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First Financial options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Financial to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in First Stock, please use our How to Invest in First Financial guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Financial's price analysis, check to measure First Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Financial is operating at the current time. Most of First Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| AI Portfolio Architect Use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum |
Is First Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Financial. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.004 | Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share 1.39 | Revenue Per Share 3.423 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.06 |
The market value of First Financial Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.