Fulcrum Therapeutics Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| FULC Stock | USD 7.55 0.25 3.21% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Fulcrum Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.22. Fulcrum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fulcrum Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Fulcrum Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fulcrum Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fulcrum Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Fulcrum |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Fulcrum Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Fulcrum Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Fulcrum Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Fulcrum Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Fulcrum Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Fulcrum Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Fulcrum Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Fulcrum. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Fulcrum Therapeutics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fulcrum Therapeutics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fulcrum Therapeutics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Fulcrum Therapeutics is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Fulcrum Therapeutics 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Fulcrum Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.22.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fulcrum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fulcrum Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fulcrum Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Fulcrum Therapeutics | Fulcrum Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Fulcrum Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fulcrum Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fulcrum Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.31 and 11.27, respectively. We have considered Fulcrum Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fulcrum Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fulcrum Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 109.1721 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1061 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3546 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0402 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.215 |
Predictive Modules for Fulcrum Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fulcrum Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fulcrum Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fulcrum Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Fulcrum, whether a beginner or expert, Fulcrum Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fulcrum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fulcrum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fulcrum Therapeutics' price trends.Fulcrum Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fulcrum Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fulcrum Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fulcrum Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fulcrum Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fulcrum Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fulcrum Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fulcrum Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fulcrum Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fulcrum Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fulcrum Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fulcrum Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fulcrum Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fulcrum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.48 | |||
| Variance | 12.09 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Fulcrum Therapeutics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Fulcrum Therapeutics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Fulcrum Therapeutics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Fulcrum Therapeutics Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fulcrum Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Fulcrum Stock refer to our How to Trade Fulcrum Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.
Complementary Tools for Fulcrum Stock analysis
When running Fulcrum Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Fulcrum Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fulcrum Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Fulcrum Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fulcrum Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fulcrum Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fulcrum Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Portfolio Suggestion Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk |
Is Fulcrum Therapeutics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fulcrum Therapeutics. If investors know Fulcrum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fulcrum Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.59) | Revenue Per Share 0.046 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.272 | Return On Assets (0.29) | Return On Equity (0.45) |
The market value of Fulcrum Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fulcrum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fulcrum Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fulcrum Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fulcrum Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fulcrum Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fulcrum Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fulcrum Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fulcrum Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.