VanEck Junior Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GDXJ Etf | USD 42.20 0.35 0.84% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of VanEck Junior Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 41.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.36. VanEck Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
VanEck |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 VanEck Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast VanEck Junior's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in VanEck Junior's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for VanEck Junior stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current VanEck Junior's open interest, investors have to compare it to VanEck Junior's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of VanEck Junior is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in VanEck. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in VanEck Junior cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the VanEck Junior's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets VanEck Junior's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for VanEck Junior is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of VanEck Junior Gold value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. VanEck Junior Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of VanEck Junior Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 41.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Junior's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
VanEck Junior Etf Forecast Pattern
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VanEck Junior Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting VanEck Junior's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Junior's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 39.01 and 43.64, respectively. We have considered VanEck Junior's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Junior etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Junior etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.8668 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7271 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 44.3557 |
Predictive Modules for VanEck Junior
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Junior Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of VanEck Junior's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Junior
For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Junior's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Junior's price trends.VanEck Junior Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Junior etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Junior could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Junior by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VanEck Junior Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VanEck Junior's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VanEck Junior's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
VanEck Junior Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Junior etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Junior shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Junior etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Junior Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
VanEck Junior Risk Indicators
The analysis of VanEck Junior's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Junior's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.48 | |||
| Variance | 6.15 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.14 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in VanEck Etf
When determining whether VanEck Junior Gold is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if VanEck Etf is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Vaneck Junior Gold Etf. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Vaneck Junior Gold Etf:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Junior to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
The market value of VanEck Junior Gold is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Junior's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Junior's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Junior's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Junior's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Junior's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Junior is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck Junior's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.