Genmab AS Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| GMAB Stock | DKK 1,954 39.00 2.04% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genmab AS on the next trading day is expected to be 1,951 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,770. Genmab Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genmab AS stock prices and determine the direction of Genmab AS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Genmab AS's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genmab AS to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Genmab Stock, please use our How to Invest in Genmab AS guide.Genmab |
Most investors in Genmab AS cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Genmab AS's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Genmab AS's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Genmab AS - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Genmab AS prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Genmab AS price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Genmab AS. Genmab AS Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Genmab AS on the next trading day is expected to be 1,951 with a mean absolute deviation of 29.99, mean absolute percentage error of 1,538, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,770.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genmab Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genmab AS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Genmab AS Stock Forecast Pattern
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Genmab AS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Genmab AS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genmab AS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,949 and 1,953, respectively. We have considered Genmab AS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genmab AS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genmab AS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -4.8827 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 29.993 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0149 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1769.5858 |
Predictive Modules for Genmab AS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genmab AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genmab AS's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Genmab AS
For every potential investor in Genmab, whether a beginner or expert, Genmab AS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genmab Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genmab. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genmab AS's price trends.Genmab AS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Genmab AS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Genmab AS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Genmab AS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Genmab AS Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genmab AS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genmab AS's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Genmab AS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genmab AS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genmab AS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genmab AS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genmab AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Genmab AS Risk Indicators
The analysis of Genmab AS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genmab AS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genmab stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.97 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Genmab AS in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Genmab AS's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Genmab AS options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genmab AS to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Genmab Stock, please use our How to Invest in Genmab AS guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Genmab Stock analysis
When running Genmab AS's price analysis, check to measure Genmab AS's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genmab AS is operating at the current time. Most of Genmab AS's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genmab AS's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genmab AS's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genmab AS to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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