Genworth Financial Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| GNW Stock | USD 5.93 0.16 2.63% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Genworth Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 6.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.18. Genworth Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Genworth Financial stock prices and determine the direction of Genworth Financial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Genworth Financial's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Genworth Financial's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Genworth Financial's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Genworth Financial fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genworth Financial to cross-verify your projections. Genworth |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Genworth Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Genworth Financial's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Genworth Financial's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Genworth Financial stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Genworth Financial's open interest, investors have to compare it to Genworth Financial's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Genworth Financial is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Genworth. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Genworth Financial cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Genworth Financial's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Genworth Financial's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Genworth Financial price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X. Genworth Financial Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 2nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Genworth Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 6.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Genworth Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Genworth Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Genworth Financial Stock Forecast Pattern
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Genworth Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Genworth Financial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Genworth Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.55 and 7.62, respectively. We have considered Genworth Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Genworth Financial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Genworth Financial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2493 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1319 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0214 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.1775 |
Predictive Modules for Genworth Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genworth Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genworth Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Genworth Financial
For every potential investor in Genworth, whether a beginner or expert, Genworth Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Genworth Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Genworth. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Genworth Financial's price trends.View Genworth Financial Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Genworth Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Genworth Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Genworth Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Genworth Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Genworth Financial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Genworth Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Genworth Financial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Genworth Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 130284.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.96 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.13) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.16) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 32.14 |
Genworth Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Genworth Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Genworth Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting genworth stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Variance | 2.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Genworth Financial Investors Sentiment
The influence of Genworth Financial's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Genworth. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Genworth Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Genworth. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Genworth can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Genworth Financial. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Genworth Financial's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Genworth Financial's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Genworth Financial's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Genworth Financial.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Genworth Financial in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Genworth Financial's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Genworth Financial options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Genworth Financial to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Genworth Stock please use our How to Invest in Genworth Financial guide.You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
Complementary Tools for Genworth Stock analysis
When running Genworth Financial's price analysis, check to measure Genworth Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genworth Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Genworth Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genworth Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genworth Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genworth Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Genworth Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genworth Financial. If investors know Genworth will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genworth Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.78) | Earnings Share 0.16 | Revenue Per Share 15.973 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.024 | Return On Assets 0.0029 |
The market value of Genworth Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genworth that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genworth Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genworth Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genworth Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genworth Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genworth Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genworth Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genworth Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.