Gabelli Gold Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GOLDX Fund | USD 17.86 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gabelli Gold Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.06. Gabelli Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Gabelli |
Most investors in Gabelli Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Gabelli Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Gabelli Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Gabelli Gold is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Gabelli Gold Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Gabelli Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Gabelli Gold Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.38, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gabelli Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gabelli Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gabelli Gold Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gabelli Gold mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gabelli Gold mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4143 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.378 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0208 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.061 |
Predictive Modules for Gabelli Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gabelli Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Gabelli Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Gabelli Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gabelli Gold mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gabelli Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gabelli Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gabelli Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gabelli Gold mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gabelli Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gabelli Gold mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Gabelli Gold Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gabelli Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gabelli Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gabelli Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gabelli mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Variance | 2.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors NV | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| DIS | Walt Disney |
Other Information on Investing in Gabelli Mutual Fund
Gabelli Gold financial ratios help investors to determine whether Gabelli Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Gabelli with respect to the benefits of owning Gabelli Gold security.
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