US Global Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| GROW Stock | USD 2.58 0.01 0.39% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of US Global Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 2.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.55. GROW Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
GROW |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 GROW Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast US Global's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in US Global's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for US Global stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current US Global's open interest, investors have to compare it to US Global's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of US Global is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in GROW. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in US Global cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the US Global's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets US Global's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for US Global is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of US Global Investors value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. US Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of US Global Investors on the next trading day is expected to be 2.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GROW Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that US Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
US Global Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest US Global | US Global Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
US Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting US Global's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. US Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.19 and 4.09, respectively. We have considered US Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of US Global stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent US Global stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3173 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0254 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0095 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.5522 |
Predictive Modules for US Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US Global Investors. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of US Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for US Global
For every potential investor in GROW, whether a beginner or expert, US Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. GROW Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in GROW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying US Global's price trends.US Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with US Global stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of US Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing US Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
US Global Investors Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of US Global's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of US Global's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
US Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how US Global stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading US Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying US Global stock market strength indicators, traders can identify US Global Investors entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
US Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of US Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in US Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grow stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9682 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.85 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions | |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc | |
| SMAPX | Salient Mlp Energy |
Additional Tools for GROW Stock Analysis
When running US Global's price analysis, check to measure US Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy US Global is operating at the current time. Most of US Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of US Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move US Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of US Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.