Granite Construction Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| GVA Stock | USD 59.39 2.13 3.72% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Granite Construction Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 59.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.48. Granite Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Granite Construction stock prices and determine the direction of Granite Construction Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Granite Construction's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Granite Construction to cross-verify your projections. Granite |
Most investors in Granite Construction cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Granite Construction's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Granite Construction's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for Granite Construction is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility. Granite Construction Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Granite Construction Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 59.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 0.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 42.48.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Granite Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Granite Construction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Granite Construction Stock Forecast Pattern
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Granite Construction Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Granite Construction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Granite Construction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 57.88 and 60.90, respectively. We have considered Granite Construction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Granite Construction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Granite Construction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2992 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2995 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.72 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0134 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.48 |
Predictive Modules for Granite Construction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Granite Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Granite Construction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Granite Construction
For every potential investor in Granite, whether a beginner or expert, Granite Construction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Granite Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Granite. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Granite Construction's price trends.Granite Construction Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Granite Construction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Granite Construction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Granite Construction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Granite Construction Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Granite Construction's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Granite Construction's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Granite Construction Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Granite Construction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Granite Construction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Granite Construction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Granite Construction Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Granite Construction Risk Indicators
The analysis of Granite Construction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Granite Construction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting granite stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7733 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Variance | 2.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5981 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Granite Construction in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Granite Construction's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Granite Construction options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Granite Construction to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Holdings module to check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing.
Complementary Tools for Granite Stock analysis
When running Granite Construction's price analysis, check to measure Granite Construction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Granite Construction is operating at the current time. Most of Granite Construction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Granite Construction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Granite Construction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Granite Construction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Granite Construction's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Granite Construction. If investors know Granite will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Granite Construction listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Granite Construction is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Granite that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Granite Construction's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Granite Construction's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Granite Construction's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Granite Construction's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Granite Construction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Granite Construction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Granite Construction's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.