Voya Asia Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

IAE Fund  USD 6.37  0.01  0.16%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Voya Asia Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 6.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.31. Voya Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Voya Asia stock prices and determine the direction of Voya Asia Pacific's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Voya Asia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Voya Asia is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Voya Asia Pacific value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Voya Asia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Voya Asia Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 6.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Voya Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Voya Asia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Voya Asia Fund Forecast Pattern

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Voya Asia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Voya Asia's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Voya Asia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.61 and 7.04, respectively. We have considered Voya Asia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.37
6.32
Expected Value
7.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Voya Asia fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Voya Asia fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.0649
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0379
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0061
SAESum of the absolute errors2.3112
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Voya Asia Pacific. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Voya Asia. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Voya Asia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Voya Asia Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Voya Asia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.656.377.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.726.447.16
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Voya Asia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Voya Asia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Voya Asia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Voya Asia Pacific.

Other Forecasting Options for Voya Asia

For every potential investor in Voya, whether a beginner or expert, Voya Asia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Voya Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Voya. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Voya Asia's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Voya Asia Pacific Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Voya Asia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Voya Asia's current price.

Voya Asia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Voya Asia fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Voya Asia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Voya Asia fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Voya Asia Pacific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Voya Asia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Voya Asia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Voya Asia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting voya fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Voya Fund

Voya Asia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Voya Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Voya with respect to the benefits of owning Voya Asia security.
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