Transamerica Asset Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

ICLLX Fund  USD 10.23  0.05  0.49%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Transamerica Asset Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 10.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.48. Transamerica Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Transamerica Asset stock prices and determine the direction of Transamerica Asset Allocation's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Transamerica Asset's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Transamerica Asset to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Transamerica Asset cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Transamerica Asset's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Transamerica Asset's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Transamerica Asset price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Transamerica Asset Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Transamerica Asset Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 10.13 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Transamerica Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Transamerica Asset's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Transamerica Asset Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Transamerica Asset Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Transamerica Asset's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Transamerica Asset's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.72 and 10.55, respectively. We have considered Transamerica Asset's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.23
10.13
Expected Value
10.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Transamerica Asset mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Transamerica Asset mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.477
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0884
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0087
SAESum of the absolute errors5.4778
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Transamerica Asset Allocation historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Transamerica Asset

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transamerica Asset. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Transamerica Asset's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.8110.2310.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.7810.2010.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9.9110.1310.34
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Transamerica Asset. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Transamerica Asset's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Transamerica Asset's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Transamerica Asset.

Other Forecasting Options for Transamerica Asset

For every potential investor in Transamerica, whether a beginner or expert, Transamerica Asset's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Transamerica Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Transamerica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Transamerica Asset's price trends.

Transamerica Asset Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Transamerica Asset mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Transamerica Asset could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Transamerica Asset by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Transamerica Asset Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Transamerica Asset's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Transamerica Asset's current price.

Transamerica Asset Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Transamerica Asset mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Transamerica Asset shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Transamerica Asset mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Transamerica Asset Allocation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Transamerica Asset Risk Indicators

The analysis of Transamerica Asset's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting it