Jumia Technologies Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| JMIA Stock | USD 7.85 1.56 16.58% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jumia Technologies AG on the next trading day is expected to be 7.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.55. Jumia Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jumia Technologies stock prices and determine the direction of Jumia Technologies AG's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Jumia Technologies' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Jumia |
Most investors in Jumia Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Jumia Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Jumia Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Jumia Technologies simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Jumia Technologies AG are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Jumia Technologies prices get older. Jumia Technologies Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jumia Technologies AG on the next trading day is expected to be 7.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.26, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jumia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jumia Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Jumia Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Jumia Technologies | Jumia Technologies Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Jumia Technologies Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Jumia Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jumia Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.01 and 13.69, respectively. We have considered Jumia Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jumia Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jumia Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.412 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0405 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2592 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0413 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.55 |
Predictive Modules for Jumia Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jumia Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jumia Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Jumia Technologies
For every potential investor in Jumia, whether a beginner or expert, Jumia Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jumia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jumia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jumia Technologies' price trends.Jumia Technologies Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jumia Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jumia Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jumia Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Jumia Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jumia Technologies' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jumia Technologies' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Jumia Technologies Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jumia Technologies stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jumia Technologies shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jumia Technologies stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jumia Technologies AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Jumia Technologies Risk Indicators
The analysis of Jumia Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jumia Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jumia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.84 | |||
| Variance | 34.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 28.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions | |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc | |
| SMAPX | Salient Mlp Energy |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Jumia Stock
When determining whether Jumia Technologies offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Jumia Technologies' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Jumia Technologies Ag Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Jumia Technologies Ag Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jumia Technologies to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jumia Technologies. If investors know Jumia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jumia Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Jumia Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jumia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jumia Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jumia Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jumia Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jumia Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jumia Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Jumia Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jumia Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.