John Keells Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for John Keells is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of John Keells Hotels value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

John Keells Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of John Keells Hotels on the next trading day is expected to be 18.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 87.17.

John Keells Stock Forecast Pattern

John Keells Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of John Keells stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent John Keells stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of John Keells Hotels. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict John Keells. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for John Keells

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as John Keells Hotels. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 17.63 18.70 19.77 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 14.53 15.60 20.57 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 18.69 18.92 19.15 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as John Keells. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against John Keells' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, John Keells' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in John Keells Hotels.

Other Forecasting Options for John Keells

For every potential investor in John, whether a beginner or expert, John Keells' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. John Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in John. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying John Keells' price trends.

John Keells Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

John Keells Hotels Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of John Keells' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of John Keells' current price.

John Keells Market Strength Events

John Keells Risk Indicators

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as John Keells Hotels using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

Complementary Tools for John Stock analysis

Please note, there is a significant difference between John Keells' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if John Keells is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, John Keells' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.