Star Pacific Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LPLI Stock | IDR 218.00 10.00 4.39% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Star Pacific Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 209.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 256.35. Star Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Star |
Most investors in Star Pacific cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Star Pacific's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Star Pacific's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Star Pacific is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Star Pacific Tbk value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Star Pacific Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 11th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Star Pacific Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 209.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.20, mean absolute percentage error of 25.80, and the sum of the absolute errors of 256.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Star Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Star Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Star Pacific Stock Forecast Pattern
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Star Pacific Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Star Pacific's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Star Pacific's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 207.24 and 212.01, respectively. We have considered Star Pacific's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Star Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Star Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.3609 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.2025 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0191 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 256.3499 |
Predictive Modules for Star Pacific
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Star Pacific Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Star Pacific's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Star Pacific
For every potential investor in Star, whether a beginner or expert, Star Pacific's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Star Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Star. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Star Pacific's price trends.Star Pacific Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Star Pacific stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Star Pacific could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Star Pacific by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Star Pacific Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Star Pacific's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Star Pacific's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Star Pacific Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Star Pacific stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Star Pacific shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Star Pacific stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Star Pacific Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0522 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.83) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 224.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 222.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 12.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (11.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (10.00) |
Star Pacific Risk Indicators
The analysis of Star Pacific's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Star Pacific's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting star stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.22 | |||
| Variance | 4.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Star Stock
Star Pacific financial ratios help investors to determine whether Star Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Star with respect to the benefits of owning Star Pacific security.