Lonza Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LZAGF Stock | USD 579.00 20.02 3.34% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lonza Group on the next trading day is expected to be 584.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 588.17. Lonza Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lonza Group stock prices and determine the direction of Lonza Group's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lonza Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lonza Group to cross-verify your projections. Lonza |
Most investors in Lonza Group cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Lonza Group's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Lonza Group's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Lonza Group is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Lonza Group value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Lonza Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lonza Group on the next trading day is expected to be 584.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.64, mean absolute percentage error of 141.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 588.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lonza Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lonza Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lonza Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Lonza Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lonza Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lonza Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 582.06 and 587.08, respectively. We have considered Lonza Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lonza Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lonza Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.0596 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.6421 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 588.1687 |
Predictive Modules for Lonza Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lonza Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lonza Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Lonza Group
For every potential investor in Lonza, whether a beginner or expert, Lonza Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lonza Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lonza. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lonza Group's price trends.Lonza Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lonza Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lonza Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lonza Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lonza Group Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lonza Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lonza Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lonza Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lonza Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lonza Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lonza Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Lonza Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0329 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.03) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 582.9 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 581.6 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 19.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (13.90) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (20.02) |
Lonza Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lonza Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lonza Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lonza pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.5 | |||
| Variance | 6.26 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.7 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lonza Group to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Lonza Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Lonza Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Complementary Tools for Lonza Pink Sheet analysis
When running Lonza Group's price analysis, check to measure Lonza Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lonza Group is operating at the current time. Most of Lonza Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lonza Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lonza Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lonza Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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