Methode Electronics Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average
| MEI Stock | USD 12.34 0.07 0.57% |
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Methode Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 12.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.26. Methode Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Methode Electronics stock prices and determine the direction of Methode Electronics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Methode Electronics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Methode Electronics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Methode Electronics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Methode Electronics fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Methode Electronics to cross-verify your projections. Methode |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 Methode Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Methode Electronics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Methode Electronics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Methode Electronics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Methode Electronics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Methode Electronics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Methode Electronics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Methode. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Methode Electronics cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Methode Electronics' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Methode Electronics' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Methode Electronics is based on an artificially constructed time series of Methode Electronics daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Methode Electronics 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 5th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Methode Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 12.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.00, mean absolute percentage error of 3.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Methode Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Methode Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Methode Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Methode Electronics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Methode Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Methode Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.41 and 17.08, respectively. We have considered Methode Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Methode Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Methode Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 106.5352 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.7446 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0049 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0753 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 54.265 |
Predictive Modules for Methode Electronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Methode Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Methode Electronics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Methode Electronics
For every potential investor in Methode, whether a beginner or expert, Methode Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Methode Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Methode. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Methode Electronics' price trends.Methode Electronics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Methode Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Methode Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Methode Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Methode Electronics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Methode Electronics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Methode Electronics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Methode Electronics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Methode Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Methode Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Methode Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Methode Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Methode Electronics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Methode Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Methode Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting methode stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.77 | |||
| Variance | 22.73 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Methode Electronics to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Methode Stock please use our How to Invest in Methode Electronics guide.Note that the Methode Electronics information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Methode Electronics' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Methode Stock analysis
When running Methode Electronics' price analysis, check to measure Methode Electronics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Methode Electronics is operating at the current time. Most of Methode Electronics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Methode Electronics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Methode Electronics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Methode Electronics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Methode Electronics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Methode Electronics. If investors know Methode will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Methode Electronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Dividend Share 0.56 | Earnings Share (1.63) | Revenue Per Share 31.999 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) |
The market value of Methode Electronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Methode that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Methode Electronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Methode Electronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Methode Electronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Methode Electronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Methode Electronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Methode Electronics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Methode Electronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.