New Gold Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NGD Stock | CAD 2.79 0.10 3.72% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 2.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.00. New Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast New Gold stock prices and determine the direction of New Gold's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of New Gold's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although New Gold's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of New Gold's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of New Gold fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Gold to cross-verify your projections. New |
Most investors in New Gold cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the New Gold's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets New Gold's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for New Gold is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of New Gold value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. New Gold Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 2.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
New Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest New Gold | New Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
New Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting New Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. New Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 6.78, respectively. We have considered New Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9783 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0645 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0268 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.9964 |
Predictive Modules for New Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as New Gold. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of New Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for New Gold
For every potential investor in New, whether a beginner or expert, New Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. New Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in New. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying New Gold's price trends.New Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with New Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of New Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing New Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
New Gold Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of New Gold's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of New Gold's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
New Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how New Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading New Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying New Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify New Gold entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 21353.53 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 1.111111 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2.76 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2.77 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.085 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 |
New Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of New Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting new stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.88 | |||
| Variance | 15.07 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of New Gold to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in New Stock, please use our How to Invest in New Gold guide.Note that the New Gold information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other New Gold's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for New Stock analysis
When running New Gold's price analysis, check to measure New Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy New Gold is operating at the current time. Most of New Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of New Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move New Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of New Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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