Consumer Products Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| RYCIX Fund | USD 51.79 0.49 0.96% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Consumer Products Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 51.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.19. Consumer Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Consumer Products stock prices and determine the direction of Consumer Products Fund's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Consumer Products' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Consumer Products to cross-verify your projections. Consumer |
Most investors in Consumer Products cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Consumer Products' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Consumer Products' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Consumer Products - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Consumer Products prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Consumer Products price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Consumer Products. Consumer Products Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 4th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Consumer Products Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 51.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Consumer Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Consumer Products' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Consumer Products Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Consumer Products | Consumer Products Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Consumer Products Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Consumer Products' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Consumer Products' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 51.26 and 52.43, respectively. We have considered Consumer Products' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Consumer Products mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Consumer Products mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0263 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2531 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.005 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 15.1881 |
Predictive Modules for Consumer Products
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Consumer Products. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Consumer Products' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Consumer Products
For every potential investor in Consumer, whether a beginner or expert, Consumer Products' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Consumer Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Consumer. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Consumer Products' price trends.Consumer Products Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Consumer Products mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Consumer Products could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Consumer Products by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Consumer Products Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Consumer Products' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Consumer Products' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Consumer Products Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Consumer Products mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Consumer Products shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Consumer Products mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Consumer Products Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 51.79 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 51.79 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.49 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 29.62 |
Consumer Products Risk Indicators
The analysis of Consumer Products' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Consumer Products' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting consumer mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5049 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6025 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6423 | |||
| Variance | 0.4126 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4531 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.363 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Consumer Products to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..