SBF 120 Index Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SBF120 Index | 6,192 40.60 0.65% |
Most investors in SBF 120 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, index markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the SBF 120's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets SBF 120's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for SBF 120 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of SBF 120 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. SBF 120 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SBF 120 on the next trading day is expected to be 6,261 with a mean absolute deviation of 30.61, mean absolute percentage error of 1,388, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,867.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SBF Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SBF 120's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SBF 120 Index Forecast Pattern
SBF 120 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SBF 120's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SBF 120's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,261 and 6,262, respectively. We have considered SBF 120's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SBF 120 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SBF 120 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 125.3459 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 30.6052 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.005 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1866.9187 |
Predictive Modules for SBF 120
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SBF 120. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SBF 120's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SBF 120. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SBF 120's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SBF 120's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in SBF 120.
Other Forecasting Options for SBF 120
For every potential investor in SBF, whether a beginner or expert, SBF 120's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SBF Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SBF. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SBF 120's price trends.SBF 120 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SBF 120 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SBF 120 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SBF 120 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SBF 120 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SBF 120's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SBF 120's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SBF 120 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SBF 120 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SBF 120 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SBF 120 index market strength indicators, traders can identify SBF 120 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0068 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.96) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6188.52 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6189.74 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 42.42 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (16.63) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (40.60) |
SBF 120 Risk Indicators
The analysis of SBF 120's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SBF 120's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sbf index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4449 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4552 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.5592 | |||
| Variance | 0.3127 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3488 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2072 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.49) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any index could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation. Note that the SBF 120 information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other SBF 120's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.