Sif Holding Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
Sif Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sif Holding stock prices and determine the direction of Sif Holding NV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sif Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Most investors in Sif Holding cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Sif Holding's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Sif Holding's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Sif Holding is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sif Holding NV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sif Holding NV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sif Holding. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.Predictive Modules for Sif Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sif Holding NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sif Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Sif Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sif Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sif Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sif Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sif Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sif Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sif Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sif stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.59 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.64 | |||
| Variance | 2.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.24) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Sif Holding
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Sif Holding position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Sif Holding will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Sif Holding could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Sif Holding when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Sif Holding - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Sif Holding NV to buy it.
The correlation of Sif Holding is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Sif Holding moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Sif Holding NV moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Sif Holding can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Sif Stock Analysis
When running Sif Holding's price analysis, check to measure Sif Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sif Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Sif Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sif Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sif Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sif Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.