SPDR Portfolio Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SPYV Etf | USD 48.37 0.25 0.52% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of SPDR Portfolio SP on the next trading day is expected to be 49.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.08. SPDR Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SPDR Portfolio stock prices and determine the direction of SPDR Portfolio SP's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of SPDR Portfolio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Portfolio to cross-verify your projections. SPDR |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 SPDR Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast SPDR Portfolio's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in SPDR Portfolio's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for SPDR Portfolio stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current SPDR Portfolio's open interest, investors have to compare it to SPDR Portfolio's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of SPDR Portfolio is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in SPDR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in SPDR Portfolio cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the SPDR Portfolio's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets SPDR Portfolio's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for SPDR Portfolio is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of SPDR Portfolio SP value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. SPDR Portfolio Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SPDR Portfolio SP on the next trading day is expected to be 49.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SPDR Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SPDR Portfolio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
SPDR Portfolio Etf Forecast Pattern
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SPDR Portfolio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting SPDR Portfolio's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SPDR Portfolio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 48.44 and 49.62, respectively. We have considered SPDR Portfolio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SPDR Portfolio etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SPDR Portfolio etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1731 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2799 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0058 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.0762 |
Predictive Modules for SPDR Portfolio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SPDR Portfolio SP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SPDR Portfolio's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for SPDR Portfolio
For every potential investor in SPDR, whether a beginner or expert, SPDR Portfolio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SPDR Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SPDR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SPDR Portfolio's price trends.SPDR Portfolio Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SPDR Portfolio etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SPDR Portfolio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SPDR Portfolio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
SPDR Portfolio SP Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SPDR Portfolio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SPDR Portfolio's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
SPDR Portfolio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SPDR Portfolio etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SPDR Portfolio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SPDR Portfolio etf market strength indicators, traders can identify SPDR Portfolio SP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 48.37 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 48.37 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.13 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.25 |
SPDR Portfolio Risk Indicators
The analysis of SPDR Portfolio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SPDR Portfolio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spdr etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4705 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.598 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6089 | |||
| Variance | 0.3707 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4745 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3576 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.47) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards SPDR Portfolio in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, SPDR Portfolio's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from SPDR Portfolio options trading.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
| LAAC | Lithium Americas Corp | |
| F | Ford Motor | |
| CHPT | ChargePoint Holdings | |
| AXL | American Axle Manufacturing | |
| ICLN | iShares Global Clean |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of SPDR Portfolio to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
The market value of SPDR Portfolio SP is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SPDR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SPDR Portfolio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SPDR Portfolio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SPDR Portfolio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SPDR Portfolio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SPDR Portfolio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SPDR Portfolio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SPDR Portfolio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.