Tax-free Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| TFCYX Fund | USD 10.02 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tax Free Conservative on the next trading day is expected to be 10.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.08. Tax-free Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tax-free Conservative stock prices and determine the direction of Tax Free Conservative's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tax-free Conservative's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tax-free Conservative to cross-verify your projections. Tax-free |
Most investors in Tax-free Conservative cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Tax-free Conservative's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Tax-free Conservative's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Tax-free Conservative simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Tax Free Conservative are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Tax Free Conservative prices get older. Tax-free Conservative Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Tax Free Conservative on the next trading day is expected to be 10.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000036, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tax-free Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tax-free Conservative's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Tax-free Conservative Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Tax-free Conservative | Tax-free Conservative Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Tax-free Conservative Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Tax-free Conservative's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tax-free Conservative's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.96 and 10.08, respectively. We have considered Tax-free Conservative's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tax-free Conservative mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tax-free Conservative mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.8803 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0013 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 1.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.08 |
Predictive Modules for Tax-free Conservative
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tax Free Conservative. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tax-free Conservative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Tax-free Conservative
For every potential investor in Tax-free, whether a beginner or expert, Tax-free Conservative's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tax-free Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tax-free. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tax-free Conservative's price trends.Tax-free Conservative Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tax-free Conservative mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tax-free Conservative could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tax-free Conservative by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Tax Free Conservative Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tax-free Conservative's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tax-free Conservative's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Tax-free Conservative Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tax-free Conservative mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tax-free Conservative shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tax-free Conservative mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Tax Free Conservative entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Tax-free Conservative Risk Indicators
The analysis of Tax-free Conservative's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tax-free Conservative's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tax-free mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0232 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0571 | |||
| Variance | 0.0033 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Tax-free Conservative to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.