00440EAH0 Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| 00440EAH0 | 110.19 0.00 0.00% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ACE INA HLDGS on the next trading day is expected to be 108.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95 and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.74. 00440EAH0 Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast 00440EAH0 stock prices and determine the direction of ACE INA HLDGS's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of 00440EAH0's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 00440EAH0 to cross-verify your projections. 00440EAH0 |
Most investors in 00440EAH0 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, bond markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the 00440EAH0's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets 00440EAH0's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
00440EAH0 polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for ACE INA HLDGS as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. 00440EAH0 Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ACE INA HLDGS on the next trading day is expected to be 108.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.95, mean absolute percentage error of 1.77, and the sum of the absolute errors of 57.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 00440EAH0 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 00440EAH0's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
00440EAH0 Bond Forecast Pattern
| Backtest 00440EAH0 | 00440EAH0 Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
00440EAH0 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 00440EAH0's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 00440EAH0's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 107.81 and 109.26, respectively. We have considered 00440EAH0's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 00440EAH0 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 00440EAH0 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6839 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9465 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0085 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 57.7387 |
Predictive Modules for 00440EAH0
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ACE INA HLDGS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 00440EAH0's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for 00440EAH0
For every potential investor in 00440EAH0, whether a beginner or expert, 00440EAH0's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 00440EAH0 Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 00440EAH0. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 00440EAH0's price trends.00440EAH0 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 00440EAH0 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 00440EAH0 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 00440EAH0 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ACE INA HLDGS Technical and Predictive Analytics
The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 00440EAH0's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 00440EAH0's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
00440EAH0 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 00440EAH0 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 00440EAH0 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 00440EAH0 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify ACE INA HLDGS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 110.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 110.19 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.73 |
00440EAH0 Risk Indicators
The analysis of 00440EAH0's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 00440EAH0's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 00440eah0 bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of ACE INA HLDGS bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5602 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7286 | |||
| Variance | 0.5308 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
| CRM | Salesforce | |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of 00440EAH0 to cross-verify your projections. Note that the ACE INA HLDGS information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other 00440EAH0's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.