US GoldMining Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| USGO Stock | 6.00 0.18 2.91% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of US GoldMining Common on the next trading day is expected to be 5.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.12. USGO Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although US GoldMining's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of US GoldMining's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of US GoldMining fundamentals over time.
USGO |
Most investors in US GoldMining cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the US GoldMining's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets US GoldMining's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for US GoldMining is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of US GoldMining Common value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. US GoldMining Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of US GoldMining Common on the next trading day is expected to be 5.63 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict USGO Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that US GoldMining's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
US GoldMining Stock Forecast Pattern
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US GoldMining Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting US GoldMining's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. US GoldMining's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.85 and 10.42, respectively. We have considered US GoldMining's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of US GoldMining stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent US GoldMining stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4949 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2277 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0377 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 14.1181 |
Predictive Modules for US GoldMining
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US GoldMining Common. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of US GoldMining's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for US GoldMining
For every potential investor in USGO, whether a beginner or expert, US GoldMining's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. USGO Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in USGO. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying US GoldMining's price trends.US GoldMining Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with US GoldMining stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of US GoldMining could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing US GoldMining by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
US GoldMining Common Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of US GoldMining's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of US GoldMining's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
US GoldMining Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how US GoldMining stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading US GoldMining shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying US GoldMining stock market strength indicators, traders can identify US GoldMining Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
US GoldMining Risk Indicators
The analysis of US GoldMining's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in US GoldMining's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting usgo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.61 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.74 | |||
| Variance | 22.5 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 16.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectAdditional Information and Resources on Investing in USGO Stock
When determining whether US GoldMining Common offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of US GoldMining's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Us Goldmining Common Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Us Goldmining Common Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of US GoldMining to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Diversified Metals & Mining space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of US GoldMining. If investors know USGO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about US GoldMining listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.82) | Return On Assets (0.92) | Return On Equity (1.71) |
The market value of US GoldMining Common is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of USGO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of US GoldMining's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is US GoldMining's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because US GoldMining's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect US GoldMining's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between US GoldMining's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if US GoldMining is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, US GoldMining's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.