Essential Utilities Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| WTRG Stock | USD 38.00 0.32 0.84% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Essential Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 38.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.63. Essential Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Essential Utilities' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Essential |
Open Interest Against 2024-10-18 Essential Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Essential Utilities' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Essential Utilities' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Essential Utilities stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Essential Utilities' open interest, investors have to compare it to Essential Utilities' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Essential Utilities is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Essential. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Essential Utilities Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of September
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Essential Utilities on the next trading day is expected to be 38.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Essential Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Essential Utilities' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Essential Utilities Stock Forecast Pattern
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Essential Utilities Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Essential Utilities' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Essential Utilities' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 37.62 and 40.25, respectively. We have considered Essential Utilities' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Essential Utilities stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Essential Utilities stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.0758 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5102 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0132 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.6331 |
Predictive Modules for Essential Utilities
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Essential Utilities. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Essential Utilities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Essential Utilities
For every potential investor in Essential, whether a beginner or expert, Essential Utilities' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Essential Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Essential. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Essential Utilities' price trends.Essential Utilities Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Essential Utilities stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Essential Utilities could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Essential Utilities by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Essential Utilities Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Essential Utilities' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Essential Utilities' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Essential Utilities Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Essential Utilities stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Essential Utilities shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Essential Utilities stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Essential Utilities entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 92051.37 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.44) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 38.05 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 38.03 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.20) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.32) |
Essential Utilities Risk Indicators
The analysis of Essential Utilities' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Essential Utilities' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting essential stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9183 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Variance | 1.72 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.26 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.09 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.98) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Essential Stock
When determining whether Essential Utilities is a strong investment it is important to analyze Essential Utilities' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Essential Utilities' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Essential Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Essential Utilities to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Essential Stock please use our How to Invest in Essential Utilities guide.You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Water Utilities space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Essential Utilities. If investors know Essential will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Essential Utilities listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.19) | Dividend Share 1.228 | Earnings Share 2.04 | Revenue Per Share 7.128 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) |
The market value of Essential Utilities is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Essential that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Essential Utilities' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Essential Utilities' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Essential Utilities' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Essential Utilities' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Essential Utilities' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Essential Utilities is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Essential Utilities' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.