American Equity Investment Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 36.69
| AEL Stock | USD 56.47 0.31 0.55% |
Closest to current price American long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
American |
American Equity Target Price Odds to finish below 36.69
The tendency of American Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 36.69 or more in 90 days |
| 56.47 | 90 days | 36.69 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American Equity to drop to $ 36.69 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This American Equity Investment probability density function shows the probability of American Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American Equity Inve price to stay between $ 36.69 and its current price of $56.47 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon American Equity has a beta of 0.31. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Equity average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Equity Investment will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Equity Investment has an alpha of 0.0163, implying that it can generate a 0.0163 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American Equity Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American Equity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Equity Inve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Equity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Equity Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American Equity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American Equity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American Equity Investment, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American Equity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.31 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
American Equity Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American Equity for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American Equity Inve can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has 864.55 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.27, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. American Equity Inve has a current ratio of 0.48, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American Equity until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Equity's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Equity Inve sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Equity's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| American Equity Inve has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 95.0% of American Equity shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 29th of April 2024 American Equity paid $ 0.38 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: IAC set to join SP SmallCap 600 |
American Equity Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of American Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential American Equity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Equity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 81 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.6 B |
American Equity Technical Analysis
American Equity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American Equity Investment. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American Equity Predictive Forecast Models
American Equity's time-series forecasting models is one of many American Equity's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American Equity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American Equity Inve
Checking the ongoing alerts about American Equity for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American Equity Inve help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has 864.55 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.27, which may show that the company is not taking advantage of profits from borrowing. American Equity Inve has a current ratio of 0.48, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist American Equity until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, American Equity's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like American Equity Inve sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for American to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about American Equity's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| American Equity Inve has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 95.0% of American Equity shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 29th of April 2024 American Equity paid $ 0.38 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: IAC set to join SP SmallCap 600 |
Check out American Equity Backtesting, American Equity Valuation, American Equity Correlation, American Equity Hype Analysis, American Equity Volatility, American Equity History as well as American Equity Performance. Note that the American Equity Inve information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Equity's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Equity's price analysis, check to measure American Equity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Equity is operating at the current time. Most of American Equity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Equity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Equity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Equity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Equity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Equity. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Equity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.188 | Earnings Share 2.06 | Revenue Per Share 35.569 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.614 | Return On Assets 0.0027 |
The market value of American Equity Inve is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Equity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Equity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Equity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Equity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Equity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Equity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Equity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.