Ashford Hospitality Trust Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 26.21
| AHT Stock | USD 1.20 0.02 1.69% |
Closest to current price Ashford long PUT Option Payoff at Expiration
Ashford |
Ashford Hospitality Target Price Odds to finish over 26.21
The tendency of Ashford Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 26.21 or more in 90 days |
| 1.20 | 90 days | 26.21 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ashford Hospitality to move over $ 26.21 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Ashford Hospitality Trust probability density function shows the probability of Ashford Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ashford Hospitality Trust price to stay between its current price of $ 1.20 and $ 26.21 at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Ashford Hospitality has a beta of 0.24. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Ashford Hospitality average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ashford Hospitality Trust will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ashford Hospitality Trust has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Ashford Hospitality Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ashford Hospitality
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ashford Hospitality Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashford Hospitality's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ashford Hospitality Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ashford Hospitality is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ashford Hospitality's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ashford Hospitality Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ashford Hospitality within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Ashford Hospitality Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ashford Hospitality for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ashford Hospitality Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ashford Hospitality generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ashford Hospitality has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ashford Hospitality may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Ashford Hospitality has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.37 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (178.49 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 296.93 M. | |
| Latest headline from express.co.uk: EU fingerprints are all over latest threat to British holidays |
Ashford Hospitality Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ashford Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ashford Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ashford Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 34.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 311.3 M |
Ashford Hospitality Technical Analysis
Ashford Hospitality's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ashford Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ashford Hospitality Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ashford Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ashford Hospitality Predictive Forecast Models
Ashford Hospitality's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ashford Hospitality's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ashford Hospitality's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ashford Hospitality Trust
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ashford Hospitality for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ashford Hospitality Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ashford Hospitality generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ashford Hospitality has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ashford Hospitality may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Ashford Hospitality has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.37 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (178.49 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 296.93 M. | |
| Latest headline from express.co.uk: EU fingerprints are all over latest threat to British holidays |
Check out Ashford Hospitality Backtesting, Ashford Hospitality Valuation, Ashford Hospitality Correlation, Ashford Hospitality Hype Analysis, Ashford Hospitality Volatility, Ashford Hospitality History as well as Ashford Hospitality Performance. Note that the Ashford Hospitality Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ashford Hospitality's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Complementary Tools for Ashford Stock analysis
When running Ashford Hospitality's price analysis, check to measure Ashford Hospitality's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashford Hospitality is operating at the current time. Most of Ashford Hospitality's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashford Hospitality's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashford Hospitality's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashford Hospitality to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ashford Hospitality's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ashford Hospitality. If investors know Ashford will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ashford Hospitality listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.61) | Revenue Per Share 39.579 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.007 | Return On Assets 0.02 | Return On Equity (22.60) |
The market value of Ashford Hospitality Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ashford that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ashford Hospitality's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ashford Hospitality's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ashford Hospitality's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ashford Hospitality's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ashford Hospitality's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ashford Hospitality is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ashford Hospitality's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.