Great Ajax Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.49
| AJX Stock | USD 3.49 0.05 1.45% |
Closest to current price Great long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Great |
Great Ajax Target Price Odds to finish over 3.49
The tendency of Great Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 3.49 | 90 days | 3.49 | about 84.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Great Ajax to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 84.84 (This Great Ajax Corp probability density function shows the probability of Great Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Great Ajax Corp has a beta of -0.0383. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Great Ajax are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Great Ajax Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Great Ajax Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Great Ajax Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Great Ajax
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Great Ajax Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Great Ajax's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Great Ajax Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Great Ajax is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Great Ajax's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Great Ajax Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Great Ajax within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.55 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.68 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.18 |
Great Ajax Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Great Ajax for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Great Ajax Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Great Ajax Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Great Ajax Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Great Ajax Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 62.68 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (46.96 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 26.91 M. | |
| Great Ajax Corp has about 47.84 M in cash with (46.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.27. | |
| Great Ajax Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Great Ajax Corp. sets conversion rate for notes due April 30 |
Great Ajax Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Great Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Great Ajax's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Great Ajax's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 52.8 M |
Great Ajax Technical Analysis
Great Ajax's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Great Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Great Ajax Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Great Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Great Ajax Predictive Forecast Models
Great Ajax's time-series forecasting models is one of many Great Ajax's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Great Ajax's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Great Ajax Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Great Ajax for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Great Ajax Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Great Ajax Corp generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Great Ajax Corp has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Great Ajax Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 62.68 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (46.96 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 26.91 M. | |
| Great Ajax Corp has about 47.84 M in cash with (46.46 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.27. | |
| Great Ajax Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Great Ajax Corp. sets conversion rate for notes due April 30 |
Check out Great Ajax Backtesting, Great Ajax Valuation, Great Ajax Correlation, Great Ajax Hype Analysis, Great Ajax Volatility, Great Ajax History as well as Great Ajax Performance. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for Great Stock analysis
When running Great Ajax's price analysis, check to measure Great Ajax's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Great Ajax is operating at the current time. Most of Great Ajax's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Great Ajax's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Great Ajax's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Great Ajax to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Great Ajax's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Great Ajax. If investors know Great will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Great Ajax listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.50) | Dividend Share 0.76 | Earnings Share (2.01) | Revenue Per Share (0.80) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.82) |
The market value of Great Ajax Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Great that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Great Ajax's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Great Ajax's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Great Ajax's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Great Ajax's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Great Ajax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Great Ajax is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Great Ajax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.