Aptose Biosciences Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 10.4
| APTO Stock | USD 1.23 0.02 1.65% |
Aptose |
Aptose Biosciences Target Price Odds to finish over 10.4
The tendency of Aptose Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.40 or more in 90 days |
| 1.23 | 90 days | 10.40 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aptose Biosciences to move over $ 10.40 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Aptose Biosciences probability density function shows the probability of Aptose Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aptose Biosciences price to stay between its current price of $ 1.23 and $ 10.40 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.28 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Aptose Biosciences has a beta of 0.99. This suggests Aptose Biosciences market returns are highly reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Aptose Biosciences is expected to follow. Additionally Aptose Biosciences has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Aptose Biosciences Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aptose Biosciences
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aptose Biosciences. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aptose Biosciences' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aptose Biosciences Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aptose Biosciences is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aptose Biosciences' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aptose Biosciences, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aptose Biosciences within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.75 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.99 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.29 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.21 |
Aptose Biosciences Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aptose Biosciences for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aptose Biosciences can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aptose Biosciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aptose Biosciences may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Aptose Biosciences has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aptose Biosciences has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (52.15 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Aptose Biosciences currently holds about 62.41 M in cash with (45.41 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.68. | |
| Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Aptose to Report First Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Provide Clinical Strategy Update on Tuesday, May 14, 2024 |
Aptose Biosciences Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Aptose Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Aptose Biosciences' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aptose Biosciences' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 6.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.2 M |
Aptose Biosciences Technical Analysis
Aptose Biosciences' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aptose Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aptose Biosciences. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aptose Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aptose Biosciences Predictive Forecast Models
Aptose Biosciences' time-series forecasting models is one of many Aptose Biosciences' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aptose Biosciences' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aptose Biosciences
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aptose Biosciences for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aptose Biosciences help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aptose Biosciences generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Aptose Biosciences may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Aptose Biosciences has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Aptose Biosciences has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| Net Loss for the year was (52.15 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Aptose Biosciences currently holds about 62.41 M in cash with (45.41 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.68. | |
| Roughly 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Aptose to Report First Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Provide Clinical Strategy Update on Tuesday, May 14, 2024 |
Check out Aptose Biosciences Backtesting, Aptose Biosciences Valuation, Aptose Biosciences Correlation, Aptose Biosciences Hype Analysis, Aptose Biosciences Volatility, Aptose Biosciences History as well as Aptose Biosciences Performance. To learn how to invest in Aptose Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aptose Biosciences guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Complementary Tools for Aptose Stock analysis
When running Aptose Biosciences' price analysis, check to measure Aptose Biosciences' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aptose Biosciences is operating at the current time. Most of Aptose Biosciences' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aptose Biosciences' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aptose Biosciences' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aptose Biosciences to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aptose Biosciences' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aptose Biosciences. If investors know Aptose will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aptose Biosciences listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (7.58) | Return On Assets (1.02) | Return On Equity (2.94) |
The market value of Aptose Biosciences is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aptose that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aptose Biosciences' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aptose Biosciences' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aptose Biosciences' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aptose Biosciences' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aptose Biosciences' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aptose Biosciences is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aptose Biosciences' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.