Caseys General Stores Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 333.73
| CASY Stock | USD 319.58 3.26 1.01% |
Closest to current price Caseys long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Caseys |
Caseys General Target Price Odds to finish below 333.73
The tendency of Caseys Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under $ 333.73 after 90 days |
| 319.58 | 90 days | 333.73 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caseys General to stay under $ 333.73 after 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Caseys General Stores probability density function shows the probability of Caseys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Caseys General Stores price to stay between its current price of $ 319.58 and $ 333.73 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.49 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Caseys General Stores has a beta of -0.29 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Caseys General are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Caseys General Stores is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Caseys General Stores has an alpha of 0.2155, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Caseys General Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Caseys General
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caseys General Stores. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caseys General's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caseys General Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caseys General is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caseys General's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caseys General Stores, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caseys General within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 15.23 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.10 |
Caseys General Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Caseys General for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Caseys General Stores can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company currently holds 1.67 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.7, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Caseys General Stores has a current ratio of 0.94, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Caseys General until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Caseys General's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Caseys General Stores sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Caseys to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Caseys General's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Caseys General has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 89.0% of Caseys General shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Are You a Value Investor This 1 Stock Could Be the Perfect Pick |
Caseys General Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Caseys Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Caseys General's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caseys General's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 37.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 378.9 M |
Caseys General Technical Analysis
Caseys General's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caseys Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caseys General Stores. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caseys Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Caseys General Predictive Forecast Models
Caseys General's time-series forecasting models is one of many Caseys General's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Caseys General's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Caseys General Stores
Checking the ongoing alerts about Caseys General for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Caseys General Stores help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company currently holds 1.67 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.7, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Caseys General Stores has a current ratio of 0.94, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Caseys General until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Caseys General's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Caseys General Stores sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Caseys to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Caseys General's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Caseys General has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 89.0% of Caseys General shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Are You a Value Investor This 1 Stock Could Be the Perfect Pick |
Check out Caseys General Backtesting, Caseys General Valuation, Caseys General Correlation, Caseys General Hype Analysis, Caseys General Volatility, Caseys General History as well as Caseys General Performance. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
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When running Caseys General's price analysis, check to measure Caseys General's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caseys General is operating at the current time. Most of Caseys General's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caseys General's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caseys General's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caseys General to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Caseys General's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caseys General. If investors know Caseys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caseys General listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 1.67 | Earnings Share 12.58 | Revenue Per Share 391.946 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of Caseys General Stores is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caseys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caseys General's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caseys General's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caseys General's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caseys General's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caseys General's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caseys General is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caseys General's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.